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sebastian_dangerfield 05-18-2005 01:03 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
Becoming a lawyer wasn't decided this way, was it?
Neeew, that was the painful lesson that taught me NOT to do what people said I ought to. How's that tune go.... "Wish that I knew what I know now..." Fuck it. Wtare under the bridge. Live and learn.

spookyfish 05-18-2005 01:03 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
I didn't say I did the opposite of what I SHOULD do, I said I did the opposite of what people in my position STATISTICALLY do. You assume the masses' decision is preferred. I'm not so sure. I think its more a comfort thing with them.
I know what you said. It just didn't make any fucking sense. By doing the opposite of what you are told people in your situation "statistically" do, (although I have to admit no one has ever talked to me that way, probably because anybody who uses statistics to try to predict human behaviors is an idiot), aren't you giving statistics as much sway as those who rely on them to make decisions? You're relying on the same statistics, you're just being a contrarian about it.

Do what your gut tells you to. I've found that this usually works well.

ThurgreedMarshall 05-18-2005 01:04 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
This is why epidemiology and statistics should not be given the reverence and evidentiary value they have been in our society. In most studies conducted, there are a thousand variables neglected. People are addicted to the shit because its only science that lets them think they can predict where they'll be and what they'll be doing in 20 years.

I have actually made certain life decisions specifically because they are contrary to what someone told me people in my situation statistically do. Don't know if they were good or not, but I know one thing - I don't want to remain a person in my situation, so doing the opposite is the best positive guidepost I can think of....
Someone explain this to me.

TM

Hank Chinaski 05-18-2005 01:09 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by Shape Shifter
It was a longshot.
Statiscally, most people with your problems would choose to stick a tube on the tailpipe of their cars, close the garage door and turn the key.

ThurgreedMarshall 05-18-2005 01:11 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
This still doesn't make sense. If you're wrong Monty is forced to pick the other wrong door, whereas if you're right he can choose between two wrong doors. that's all the wheel says, isn't it?
I still don't get it either. For those too lazy to click over, here is the explanation:

"To analyze this problem we represent this senario as a random variable on a roulette wheel. The roulette wheel on the left simulates the Let's Make a Deal game. The inner wheel represents the number of the door that the car is behind, the middle wheel represents the door that is selected by the contestant, and the outer wheel represents the door Monty Hall can show. Spinning this roulette wheel once is equivalent to playing the game once. The outer wheel also tells you what your strategy should be to win. The red means that in order to win the contestant needs to switch doors, and the blue means that the contestant should not switch. Notice that there are twice as many red sections as blue. In other words, you are twice as likely to win if you switch than if you don't switch! What this wheel makes evident is that with probability 1/3 the contestant selects the correct door in which case it would be better not to switch. In the other 2/3 of the cases, Monty Hall is telling the contestant where the car is!"

http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/images/wheel.jpg

How is this an explanation?: "Notice that there are twice as many red sections as blue. In other words, you are twice as likely to win if you switch than if you don't switch!"

Anyone? Anyone?

TM

sunnybunny 05-18-2005 01:11 PM
The new Lindsey
 
Quote:
Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
She's going for the Paris Hilton Alien-From-Close-Encounters-Of-The-Third-Kind look. The dress and the face and the hair are total skank Hilton look.

If you haven't seen it yet, the South Park where they tear Paris a new ass is really funny. Problem is, Paris probably thinks its a tribute of some sort. Why my gripe about Paris? It ain't that she's a rich vapid twat... No, my issue is that her face is ugly, and she's fucking up what's considered attractive in this country. I wan't my MTV beach house dancers, models and Hollywood trash to look like Angelina or Andrienne Lima, not some air brushed, pseudo-anorexic chick who looks like she's got a touch of Marphans. Gisele is about as gangly as I go... Paris looks like a fucking Preying Mantis with tits. And will somebody please pull her fucking eyes apart... the fucking Charlie Brown look suits no one. You could put billboards on the sides of her face between her eyes and ears.

Not hot. Three thumbs down.
Sebby, if you ever are up for some extramarital action, I'm thinking you'd be a good candidate to lower my purity score.

Toodles,

Bunny

sebastian_dangerfield 05-18-2005 01:12 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by spookyfish
I know what you said. It just didn't make any fucking sense. By doing the opposite of what you are told people in your situation "statistically" do, (although I have to admit no one has ever talked to me that way, probably because anybody who uses statistics to try to predict human behaviors is an idiot), aren't you giving statistics as much sway as those who rely on them to make decisions? You're relying on the same statistics, you're just being a contrarian about it.

Do what your gut tells you to. I've found that this usually works well.
Statistically, most people are not contrarians. I am the sort of person who will occasionally cut off his nose just to say "fuck off" to somebody who tells me what I "ought" to do.

ThurgreedMarshall 05-18-2005 01:13 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by spookyfish
I know what you said. It just didn't make any fucking sense. By doing the opposite of what you are told people in your situation "statistically" do, (although I have to admit no one has ever talked to me that way, probably because anybody who uses statistics to try to predict human behaviors is an idiot), aren't you giving statistics as much sway as those who rely on them to make decisions? You're relying on the same statistics, you're just being a contrarian about it.
Come on. Are you really having this conversation with the guy who said, "I'm sure everyone mainly agrees that I am mostly correct..."?

TM

spookyfish 05-18-2005 01:18 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by ThurgreedMarshall
Come on. Are you really having this conversation with the guy who said, "I'm sure everyone mainly agrees that I am mostly correct..."?

TM
No. I'm busting his huge balls. I would expect you, of all people, (statistically speaking, that is) to know the difference.

Shape Shifter 05-18-2005 01:20 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by spookyfish
anybody who uses statistics to try to predict human behaviors is an idiot
So much for economics.

Shape Shifter 05-18-2005 01:21 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
Statiscally, most people with your problems would choose to stick a tube on the tailpipe of their cars, close the garage door and turn the key.
Is that how you blew up your car?

ThurgreedMarshall 05-18-2005 01:21 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by spookyfish
No. I'm busting his huge balls. I would expect you, of all people, (statistically speaking, that is) to know the difference.
I haven't yet seen them. If you remember, the hole is still only one inch in diameter. The probability of his huge, itchy balls revealing themselves (even if he knows which one has the best chance of popping out) is still very low.

(And I wasn't really asking you. I just wanted to use Sebby's quote on him while he's going on about statistics.)

TM

Sidd Finch 05-18-2005 01:22 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by ThurgreedMarshall
How is this an explanation?: "Notice that there are twice as many red sections as blue. In other words, you are twice as likely to win if you switch than if you don't switch!"

Anyone? Anyone?

TM

I've read this before and disagree with it. And decided that Marilyn vos Savant is a skanky whore.

As I read the explanation, the odds don't change if there is no interference -- i.e., if you pick one of three doors, and I eliminate a wrong door, the odds of you getting the right door by switching are 50/50.

The statistics change if Monty Hall is telling you to switch. And I think that this is not a matter of probability, but a matter of statistics -- the two are different and the difference is important; probability is math, statistics is history.

The problem immediately gets into an area where statistics becomes useless -- Monty knows where the car is. What if he doesn't like you? Is constipated and cranky that day? Had a booze-and-hooker filled night and makes a mistake?

Anyway, that's my 2 cents.

Hank Chinaski 05-18-2005 01:22 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by Shape Shifter
Is that how you blew up your car?
Yes. :( remember, You should put the tube in your car window

Hank Chinaski 05-18-2005 01:25 PM
Who likes Math?
 
Quote:
Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
Statistically, most people are not contrarians. I am the sort of person who will occasionally cut off his nose just to say "fuck off" to somebody who tells me what I "ought" to do.
There was a big story in NYT a few Sundays back. Contrarians, the kind of people who eliminate from their wine choices what the waiter recommends, are a pretty big group. So your not following the crowd, is simply following the group.


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