Here are the numnbers.
 

What you say is true (Gingrich is/was a true believer), but I don't think it is unfortunate.

You've mentioned this bit of ancient political history twice today -- must have really burned you up how Newt and the GOP took all of the political heat for that event. A skilled politician and communicator versus a committed ideologue.

S_A_M

Delay = RINO
 

I am really not trying to make a partisan point here. This all started as a discussion of deficit reduction policy and who has historically sought balanced budgets. My underlying belief is that balanced budgets are something for which there is not natural constituency, and really require some level of cooperation between parties (willing or unwilling) as a result. But I also do not believe Democrats can be justly accused of being unrepetant deficit spenders for the last 50 years. That part is simply contrary to the historical record.

Delay = RINO
 

How can you say this with a straight face. First of all, the cuts would have been bigger if Clinton had not opposed them. The growing economy was the biggest factor in balancing the budget. Then the fact that the Repubs were able to stem government growth.

My God, you people have saved the nation!

We've been such fools. I see it now. I'm switching parties this year!

S_A_M

P.S. For someone who deals in numbers as much as you do, and presumably studied statistics in college (at least one basic course), I'm a bit surprised that you seem to assume that correlation equals causation, and that you have so little appreciation for the many potential confounding variables at work.

Nope. It's -- "Hey Boys, Newt and Trent took over, we're saved! The world is finally safe for rich, investors. Turn the big wheel and lower the rates!"

Delay = RINO
 

It is my understanding that the projected deficit from this years budget has been reduced by thirty percent because of growth and may be adjusted even more because of growth.

If you remember that is what kept happening during the late ninetys. The deficits were always surprizingly smaller than predicted because of the phenonminal growth.

Delay = RINO
 

I don't think you are trying to make a partisan point. I was just supplying you with the formula Spanky is using so that you could stop trying to counter him with actual facts.

Delay = RINO
 

2. similarly, most of fringey's funnier posts were generated because she was mad at me or Penske.

Delay = RINO
 

Let me lay out some raw material and see if it holds up given this hypothesis.

Here are some figures for 1992 and 2000, the beginning and end of the Clinton Administration. Everything is taken from historical governmental statistics and is in billions of dollars.

1992:

GDP 6,240
Government Receipts: 1,091
Receipts from Individual Income Taxes: 476
Receipts from Corporate Income Taxes: 100
Government Outlays: 1,381

2000:

GDP 9,708 (up a bit more than 50%)
Government Receipts: 2,025 (up by almost 100%)
Receipts from Individual Income Taxes: 1,004 (up more than 100%)
Receipts from Corporation Income Taxes: 207 (up more than 100%)
Government Outlays: 1,788 (up about 30%)


So, government outlays grew more slowly than GDP (30% versus 50%) while government income grew much faster than GDP (100% versus 50%). Income taxes as a percentage of governmental receipts grew somewhat.

OK, this tells me that the level of deficit reduction that occurred depended very heavily on the tax component. It also tells me that government grew more slowly than the economy, which is a general victory for those desiring a smaller government.

As I said, I'm not an economist and I'm sure there are dynamic forces, and I'm also sure that some might have cut more or raised less, but I think it is very hard in these numbers to see room for the scale of deficit reduction that occurred without the tax component. The statement that "the growing economy was the biggest factor..." does not appear right, because governmental receipts grew much faster than the economy, and this differential makes up a very large part of the surplus.

Indeed, had governmental receipts grown at the same rate as the economy, about 50%, there would have been no surplus and the economy would have continued in substantial deficit.

Delay = RINO
 

Sorry, I think I just did it again.

I will try to say something funny about the budget.

Delay = RINO
 

No, no, I was being self-indulgent. Pointless argument is the point of this place.

Delay = RINO
 

Good, because I can't come up with anything funny about the budget.

I am not confusing anything and there is direct causation here. Long term intereste rates are completely intertwined with long term projections on US Federal Budget Deficit. Bond traders are always discussing what goes on with the budget.

You may critisize the Republican all you want, but you have to admit that in 94 the new Republican congress showed party discipline that we will probably never see again in our lifetimes. Gingrich had such control that in 95 some people were saying Clinton had become irrelevant. Any bill put before congress there were very few Republican defections. And the budget bills were passed with incredible speed and efficiency.

In 1994 and 1995 I was working for a large corporate Japanese law firm in Tokyo and our clients were all the big investment banks. In addition, I hung out with all the bond traders. I remember the dissapointment in Clintons ability to control his party, the sckepticism that people had with Gingrish being able to control the new Repubs, and the utter shock when he did. Clinton was given a pass because he had put Rubin in as Treasury Secretary but by 94 the pass was revoked. Hence the incredibly high long term bond rates.

No one expected the Repubs to win. When they did there was euphoria in the markets. There was complete shock when Gingrich was able to tightly control his party and when he come up with his budget plan, and people realized he was going to pass it, there was a whole new confidence in the bond markets.

Isn't someone else on this board involved in the bond markets?

Delay = RINO
 

So is it your theory that under Bush, there has been no government growth, and the recession (which really didn't last very long, because after all Bush's tax cuts ended it so fast) is the reason for the staggering deficit that we've had since he took office?

Incredible. Truly, deeply incredible. And yet, I think this is what you believe. The tax cuts had nothing to do with reducing revenues, and those nasty Dems with their secret, cabal-like mind control techniques, are causing the massive increase in spending.

let's talk about how the earth is really flat. Or how our mission was accomplished in Iraq in 03.

For RT.
 

Weird, right? That voice has meant "local news" to me since I was knee-high to the Defender machine down at the record store. Now when I hear it I think "I bet that guy likes his whiskey."

For RT.
 

My insurance agent's name is Sue Simmons. And I talked to Chuck Scarborough on the phone once -- I signed his kid up for SAT tutoring.

Delay = RINO
 

Actually this is not true. Deficit prediction are almost always to high in a growing economy and too low in a slowing economy because of the multiplier effect. When the economy grows, tax receipts grow at a higher percentage than the economy. One of the reasons is "bracket creep". People get pushed into higher tax brackets where they pay a higher percentage of taxes. There are also many other factors.

If people remember, no one saw how quickly the budget was going to get balanced. Every quarter the deficit was being adjusted down because of unanticipated growth in revenue from the economic growth.

Delay = RINO
 

Thurman Munson? Nice. And was that Meg Ryan before Thurman? Why, if one may ask, was she your avatar?

Are you related to Dave (a poster who had a rotating list of "Dave" avatars), perchance?

Delay = RINO
 

You just are not paying attention. The deficit was caused by both the diminishing economy, tax cuts and spending increases. But that is OK, because that is what you do in a recession. Cut taxes, increase spending to pull you out.

Now that we are growing again the government should cut spending. The Repubs are not doing a very good job at that but it is not like there is an alternative. If the firemen are not doing a very good job putting out fires, you don't turn the job over to the girl scouts.

Delay = RINO
 

All captains. Meg Ryan was Captain Walden in Courage Under Fire.

The rotating avatars were a bit of an accident. I switched to Lincoln when there was a discussion on slavery and someone asked me to change it, and I got a number of suggestions. I don't know Dave.

#15
 

Munson - now we talkin'!!!

#15
 

This seemed like an appropriate time for it.

#15
 

Discussion about Carter-era inflation... or Red Sox slump?

#15
 

The Yankees have been winning. They would be in first regardless of anything Congress or the Red Sox have done.

(Finally, a budget joke!)

For RT.
 

Oh yeah? I pissed on Len Berman's shoes one time in the men's room at the Boardy Barn. I bitch-slapped Ernie Anastos at the Massapequa 7-11 and stole his car. Strong Island, bay-beee!

Counteroffer
 

First sign of a corrupt regime, when the going gets tough, the tough take bribes to abuse power. I thought you were all about helping the charities?

For RT.
 

I told Frank Field his son is a fag.

Counteroffer
 

this whole thing seems like a bad precedent.

For RT.
 

In a good way or a bad way?

Delay = RINO
 

I am happy to admit that budget numbers have some level of dynamism and don't respond in a straight line. As you note, there are many factors. These factors, of course, will go both ways.

But given the extraordinary differential (50% growth in GDP, 100% growth in receipts), I am not going to be convinced until you show some evidence that the dynamic factors have that big an impact.

Bracket creep, for example, can increase the rate by a percentage on income over a given level, but that is not a 50% increase in tax revenue.

3000 plus reasons why America can't affourd a Dimocrit again
 

'(UPI) The terrorists saw our response to the hostage crisis in Iran.........the first World Trade Center attack, the killing of American soldiers in Somalia, the destruction of two U.S. embassies in Africa and the attack on the USS Cole,' Bush said. 'The terrorists concluded that we lacked the courage and character to defend ourselves and so they attacked us.'

Right on W! Clinton was busy diddling his little willie in the Oval Office sink while the Islamics killed America and Atta made his way towards 911.

What type of lie will Clinton try when he comes face to face wiht Satan to answer for his sins here?!?!?

http://www.sentryoveramerica.com/Ima..._911_blood.jpg

Delay = RINO
 

You should have that looked at, by the way.

Roberts
 

Well, you know he's getting confirmed. The other 3 voted for so they can say "send us a reasonable nominee and we'll vote yes". Same with the 20 or so Ds who will vote yes on the floor.

what's the SoL for Murder?
 

Delay = RINO
 

Eh, I think I have bigger problems.

Delay = RINO
 

Apparently on your planet you blame the girl scouts instead.

Delay = RINO
 

You sure about that? The CBO appears to disagree with you. The 2005 deficit is projected to be 507 billion. It will drop a whopping 4 billion (less than one percent) next year, then rise to 528, then 554, then..... You get the picture.

Of course, these aren't the deficit numbers that Bush will report. These number count bonds issued to the Social Security Trust Fund as debt, rather than pretending (as Republican Presidents like to do) that these bonds are not obligations that will have to be repaid.

3000 plus reasons why America can't affourd a Dimocrit again
 

I'm thinking he might ask to reup for another tour of duty.

Delay = RINO
 

Best post of the day.

Delay = RINO
 

When we use these numbers (Social Security Trust Fund), don't they show that the budget was never balanced even in the 90s?

Delay = RINO
 

No.