| ThurgreedMarshall |
07-13-2007 10:36 AM |
Giants
Quote:
Originally posted by Cletus Miller
First, I'm assuming, possibly incorrectly, that Miggy leaves the Marlins. So, he'd leave a park which is hurts his power numbers a bunch (his 3 full seasons he's hit 30% more homers on the road; Arod was closer to even split in Seattle) and probably be in the the middle of a better line-up giving him more RBI opportunity.
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I'll concede this point.
Quote:
Originally posted by Cletus Miller
Second, compare his numbers to ARod's when Arod was 21, 22, 23, 24. Miggy's not that far behind, tho he is a bit behind. ARod's really big years started when he was 25--next year for Miggy--and after he left Seattle.
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This is misleading. ARod is a freak. Most really good major league players level off way below where ARod has been. Just because Cabrera has similar numbers to ARod at the same age does not mean he is going to improve at the same rate as ARod. He may be at or near his peak right now (which would be fine with me). It also doesn't mean he will have the longevity and sustained success ARod has had. ARod is a physical specimen. Cabrera, well, let's just do a photo comparison of the two, who are 8 years apart in age:
http://artfiles.art.com/images/-/Ale...C10125992.jpeg
http://bp1.blogger.com/_4bK9kYUYx7E/...h/mcabrera.jpg
Quote:
Originally posted by Cletus Miller
Third, you really believe that, barring injury to either, ARod will be a more productive hitter at 40 than Cabrera will be at 32? You think that ARod will drop off only slightly and that Cabrera will not get better? I don't.
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At age 40, no. But we're not talking about a comparison of just the last few years. We're talking about the next ten years. And I think that if you total them up, ARod will have better numbers.
Quote:
Originally posted by Cletus Miller
I'm not saying that Cabrera will end up with better numbers over his entire career than ARod--I seriously doubt that--but I am saying that I think the 24 yo Cabrera will have a better next 10 years than the 32 yo ARod. With the notable exception of Bonds, hitters don't get better after they're 32. They do get better, especially w/r/t power stats, after they are 24--Arod is just one example.
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Okay, but ARod is 30 right now and he is on pace to break Maris' record (for real). I don't see a serious drop off in talent for ARod over the next 5 years. The guy is a stat machine. And if he stays in shape, I don't think the drop off will be that extreme after that.
Anyway, if ARod wants more than $30 mil, fuck him. I'll take Cabrera.
TM
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