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-   -   We are all Slave now. (http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=882)

Hank Chinaski 05-04-2018 01:17 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan (Post 514913)
restrictions on car sharing services.
Does this mean Uber/Lyft? Why is that good? I just heard last night Austin banned Uber. Seems a bad idea.

Adder 05-04-2018 01:24 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan (Post 514913)
I wish I could find the article, but a few years ago, I read something compelling about the cities across the country picking up where the dysfunctional state and federal governments could not. And in Texas at least, there's been some state backlash on that with the state reacting poorly to local efforts to reduce fracking, or impose plastic bag bans, or put restrictions on car sharing services.
Yes, we're getting that too. The state passed preemption of a plastic bag ban because Minneapolis was going to do it. They even proposed a ban on ranked choice voting in municipal elections, which only Minneapolis and St. Paul do, because we silly urbanites can't be responsible for governing ourselves.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 05-04-2018 01:26 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adder (Post 514910)
Actually, the plan was to include a public option, which could be used to demonstrate the efficacy of government-provided insurance (for people not eligible for Medicare). Joe Lieberman, being the marginal required vote, said no.

Was it the insurers that made him do it? Dunno.
I suspect two things were at play:

(1) Joe represents Connecticut, the Insurance State.
(2) Joe's ego required that no major bill go through without him exercising a "moderating" influence on it, whether that made sense or not.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 05-04-2018 01:31 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 514908)
This makes sense in a world in which a lot of centrist Democrats are worried about what moderates think. But are those days passing? Increasingly Democrats are not interested in compromise, because Republicans don't do it and so it's a one-way street. And there don't seem to be many moderate voters anymore. So it might not take as big a margin in either chamber than it would have in the past.
No, those days aren't passing. Sure, most Dems in Massachusetts are in safe seats. But the seats that make the margins are ones where moderates count. You may not know moderates in SF (and there are very few here in Boston), but there are plenty in places like Virginia, Indiana, and Colorado, and if you're going to convert Republican voters you're going to convert them to a moderate dem identity more than a Ty or GGG dem identity. Realize a lot of minority voters in the south count as moderates compared to SF and Boston dems.

We also have plenty of examples around here - BnB, Hank, others who now vote D who used to vote R and who think of themselves as more middle of the road than you and I.

If people play this like moderates don't count, Dems will find that Blue Wave start slipping away.

Tyrone Slothrop 05-04-2018 01:37 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan (Post 514913)
And in Texas at least, there's been some state backlash on that with the state reacting poorly to local efforts to reduce fracking, or impose plastic bag bans, or put restrictions on car sharing services.
Prop 13 in California was essentially a backlash to local efforts to use property taxes to do things. IMO, it's the fundamental reason why housing prices are so high in so much of California.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 05-04-2018 01:45 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 514905)
seriously?

The biggest fiction the R voters believe is that they are all smart and the D voters are either dumb, or of ill-intent.

The biggest fiction the D voters believe is that they are all smart and the R voters are either dumb, or of ill-intent. The average IQ of D voters is probably right close to the average IQ of R voters.
There have been a number of studies showing that over the last 20 or so years higher IQ people tended toward either Democratic or liberal beliefs and that on the whole Democratic elected officials are both more educated and more intelligent. It's actually an accelerating trend. There was closer parity back when we were young.

Hank Chinaski 05-04-2018 01:49 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 514919)
There have been a number of studies showing that over the last 20 or so years higher IQ people tended toward either Democratic or liberal beliefs and that on the whole Democratic elected officials are both more educated and more intelligent. It's actually an accelerating trend. There was closer parity back when we were young.
Umm, cite please. If you're saying the highest IQ people vote Dem, that simply reaffirms Harvard/Berkeley. The average IQ of all voters is a different thing.

Tyrone Slothrop 05-04-2018 01:49 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 514917)
No, those days aren't passing. Sure, most Dems in Massachusetts are in safe seats. But the seats that make the margins are ones where moderates count. You may not know moderates in SF (and there are very few here in Boston), but there are plenty in places like Virginia, Indiana, and Colorado, and if you're going to convert Republican voters you're going to convert them to a moderate dem identity more than a Ty or GGG dem identity. Realize a lot of minority voters in the south count as moderates compared to SF and Boston dems.

We also have plenty of examples around here - BnB, Hank, others who now vote D who used to vote R and who think of themselves as more middle of the road than you and I.

If people play this like moderates don't count, Dems will find that Blue Wave start slipping away.
I'm all in favor of converting moderate Republicans, but the last election showed that people who identify as Republican will, in the end, even vote for a Donald Trump than convert. I think the received wisdom after this November will be that what matters more is exciting your own base and getting them to turn out.

Tyrone Slothrop 05-04-2018 01:52 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 514919)
There have been a number of studies showing that over the last 20 or so years higher IQ people tended toward either Democratic or liberal beliefs and that on the whole Democratic elected officials are both more educated and more intelligent. It's actually an accelerating trend. There was closer parity back when we were young.
FWIW, I don't believe for a second that Democrats are significantly more intelligent. If they are higher IQ, that's bias in those tests.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 05-04-2018 02:05 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 514920)
Umm, cite please. If you're saying the highest IQ people vote Dem, that simply reaffirms Harvard/Berkeley. The average IQ of all voters is a different thing.
Here's one article I found quickly summarizing some of the findings. You can google and find more.

Its been a while since I looked at this; once when I was involved in running data for political campaigns it was relevant to stuff I did, but that's now 25 years ago, and I've only kept up piecemeal. There are people like Charles Murray who try to argue that the racial make up of Democrats implies that Republicans have to be higher IQ, but Charles Murray is a total blithering idiot himself, so if you want to rely on his analysis, then, as they say, res ipsa....

It appears education rather than intelligence is the critical thing for this cycle though .... the Dems are doing markedly better over the last 8 years among well-educated voters, and to the extent they can capitalize on that trend it could have a major impact on the house.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 05-04-2018 02:11 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 514921)
I'm all in favor of converting moderate Republicans, but the last election showed that people who identify as Republican will, in the end, even vote for a Donald Trump than convert. I think the received wisdom after this November will be that what matters more is exciting your own base and getting them to turn out.
If that's the case Dems are screwed because our base is more concentrated.

sebastian_dangerfield 05-04-2018 02:13 PM
China People and Cocaine Mitch
 
...No, it's not a long lost Dylan track.

But it is simply amazing. I feel guilty for laughing.

No, not really. It's hysterical.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...l-china-568305

Tyrone Slothrop 05-04-2018 02:17 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 514923)
Here's one article I found quickly summarizing some of the findings. You can google and find more.

Its been a while since I looked at this; once when I was involved in running data for political campaigns it was relevant to stuff I did, but that's now 25 years ago, and I've only kept up piecemeal. There are people like Charles Murray who try to argue that the racial make up of Democrats implies that Republicans have to be higher IQ, but Charles Murray is a total blithering idiot himself, so if you want to rely on his analysis, then, as they say, res ipsa....

It appears education rather than intelligence is the critical thing for this cycle though .... the Dems are doing markedly better over the last 8 years among well-educated voters, and to the extent they can capitalize on that trend it could have a major impact on the house.
IQ tests don't ask questions about certain knowledge, e.g., that iron bed legs are better because rats can't climb them, and so people who know those things are less "intelligent" even if they are no less intelligent.

Tyrone Slothrop 05-04-2018 02:18 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 514924)
If that's the case Dems are screwed because our base is more concentrated.
That is a problem, yes.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 05-04-2018 02:19 PM
Re: Rudy Can Fail
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 514922)
FWIW, I don't believe for a second that Democrats are significantly more intelligent. If they are higher IQ, that's bias in those tests.
Using IQ as a proxy for intelligence is generally riddled with problems and I'd usually agree with you, but most of the inherent biases in IQ seem to bias toward more Republican-oriented demographics.

I will say: I'm not sure this matters. The only reason it might matter is if it affects how you target to win elections, and there are not many effective ways to target for intelligence.


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