| Spanky |
09-22-2005 06:30 PM |
Quote:
Originally posted by Secret_Agent_Man
My God, you people have saved the nation!
We've been such fools. I see it now. I'm switching parties this year!
S_A_M
P.S. For someone who deals in numbers as much as you do, and presumably studied statistics in college (at least one basic course), I'm a bit surprised that you seem to assume that correlation equals causation, and that you have so little appreciation for the many potential confounding variables at work.
Nope. It's -- "Hey Boys, Newt and Trent took over, we're saved! The world is finally safe for rich, investors. Turn the big wheel and lower the rates!"
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I am not confusing anything and there is direct causation here. Long term intereste rates are completely intertwined with long term projections on US Federal Budget Deficit. Bond traders are always discussing what goes on with the budget.
You may critisize the Republican all you want, but you have to admit that in 94 the new Republican congress showed party discipline that we will probably never see again in our lifetimes. Gingrich had such control that in 95 some people were saying Clinton had become irrelevant. Any bill put before congress there were very few Republican defections. And the budget bills were passed with incredible speed and efficiency.
In 1994 and 1995 I was working for a large corporate Japanese law firm in Tokyo and our clients were all the big investment banks. In addition, I hung out with all the bond traders. I remember the dissapointment in Clintons ability to control his party, the sckepticism that people had with Gingrish being able to control the new Repubs, and the utter shock when he did. Clinton was given a pass because he had put Rubin in as Treasury Secretary but by 94 the pass was revoked. Hence the incredibly high long term bond rates.
No one expected the Repubs to win. When they did there was euphoria in the markets. There was complete shock when Gingrich was able to tightly control his party and when he come up with his budget plan, and people realized he was going to pass it, there was a whole new confidence in the bond markets.
Isn't someone else on this board involved in the bond markets?
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