Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

The Convention is a *literal* as well as metaphorical shitstorm. (See also the Melania plagiarism evolution 1. She wrote it 2. She didn't 3. It wasn't plagiarism 4. Hillary is jealous 5.Twilight Sparkle of My Little Pony said it too (and I wish that were not actually an official RNC defense) and finally 6. It was plagiarism, but oops.) The GOP is now the Trump party, determined to take over the world by alienating 40% of their most reliable voters. Some of that 40% have determined that Hillary may yet be a greater evil, and suck it up, but I am not one of them. Last night I ceremonially burned my voter registration card (and may have tweeted video of it to @Reince).

I don't consider myself Republican, but I am still watching to see if the party is truly dead, or if a spectacular loss will flush this out. I fear that the damage of Trump's rhetoric is permanent, but I am watching what is being planned in the shadows. This Politico story explains it pretty well. I am definitely banking on a Trump loss.


http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...d-trump-214065

Re: And...
 

Hanging out in the heat dome. Time for some sweaty funk. New Orleans style. The Meters, Hey Pocky Way, which was also a hit for the Wild Tchoupitoulas, which sometimes used the Neville Brothers for their backing band:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEtXT9w9AYU

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I don't understand who they think is going to be more likely to vote for this version of the party than for, say, Romney or McCain. It all seems pitched to working-class white men, on the assumption that turning them out will overcome the effects with women, blacks, Hispanics, etc. I just don't see how that can work.

Seems like establishment Republicans are waiting for Trump to lose so that they can try to reassert control, but I think it's that simple.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Michigan votes pretty heavily for the D for president most times. The last R to win might have been Bush in 88. BUT we also voted heavily to ban Affirmative Action and Gay Marriage. The Prez/Hate votes were pretty similar other than working class whites in a place called Macomb County. There is certainly a chnace Trump takes some of those who voted for Ds in the past.

The Rs "losing black votes" is not a thing. Woman sure, but maybe they didn't count on that?

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

It's not just the share of the vote, it's also the turnout. I believe Trump is motivating blacks, Hispanics and others to get more involved.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I've also heard that lots of green card holders are taking the final steps to citizenship to get the vote. Not sure that is much volume in the places that matter.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

This, from Nate Silver, is a great tool for this analysis.

Hillary will be lucky to win as high a percentage of Black votes as Obama, and lucky to get as high a turnout as he did. But Trump is making that more likely. And Georgia and North Carolina could easily swing to the Dems based on black turnout.

However, Hillary may beat Obama among Hispanics on both percentage of vote and turnout. But Hispanics have very low rates of voting. She needs marked improvement in both vote and turnout, and then Arizona and Texas come within reach. If the republicans improved their position among hispanics, it would be a big problem for the Dems in several states, but that is unlikely to occur.

For Trump's core, the uneducated white voters, he needs to get to something like a 50% spoint spread in that demographic alone to flip enough states to win, assuming all others stay at 2012 levels. Even something like a 40% spread only flips Ohio and Iowa without movement elsewhere.

My takeaway is that the race is going to be fought out among every demographic.

The one thing this isn't useful for is testing the gender gap. Hopefully that will be included in version 2.

Amazing
 

The implosion of the Republican Party has been more fun to watch than I thought it would be.

http://www.slate.com/content/dam/sla...ediumlarge.jpg

I love that Cruz almost got his ass kicked for not endorsing Trump.

'The convention floor briefly devolved into chaos following his remarks. Cruz's wife, Heidi, was escorted off the floor as hecklers shouted "Goldman Sachs!" -- a reminder of where she works. Minutes later, a delegate had to be restrained from physically attacking Cruz.'

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/21/politi...ree-takeaways/

TM

Re: Amazing
 

http://www.slate.com/content/dam/sla...ediumlarge.jpg


Someone is going to have to explain that salute to me. Can't be on purpose, can it? But how do you do that by accident?

Re: Amazing
 

To be fair, she tried to switch it off as quickly as she could. But that wasn't an accident.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJWygHbLIJc

TM

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Evangelicals, who sat out 2012. Hence, Pence.

And the under the radar bigoted vote. "I've nothing against immigration, but let's face it - they muck up the neighborhood, and this Muslim thing in Europe's a shit show. I don't want that here." I hear sentiments like that all the time among poor to quite affluent voters of all races.

It's unwise to think those doing well, who tend to be better educated, will lockstep behind Hillary. The argument I hear over and over goes like this: "You can't vote for him! It'll fuck up the market!" "Perhaps. But only for so long. And we need to shake shit up. And she'll tax the fuck out of us... Obama would have, but he couldn't because of the 2008 mess. She can and will."

The "let's try something - anything - new" and "fuck all the incumbents" sentiments are also strong, and run across almost all demographics.

ETA: But you'll never see any accurate data on how much these views permeate the numerous demographics because none of the people saying this shit will say it out loud except for the dumb foot soldiers you see at Trump rallies.

Huge 2. That's the strategic bet among party elites. The question is, will the people running the GOP ground games at the state levels also leave Trump out to dry? I think a lot of the infantry loves the guy.

ETA: I don't see Trump winning, but I also don't see Nate Silver being very accurate this year. There's a potentially 'yuge, eye-opening and ugly surprise lurking beyond the data collection nets. That's what's keeping this otherwise depressing race interesting.

Re: Amazing
 

It is difficult. I just tried to do it while waving and found the two motions quite physically distinct.

Re: Amazing
 

But, to be fair, when was the last time you put on the hat and the leather boots and practiced in front of your mirror all night?

I thought she was a natural.

Re: And...
 

What is it about a heat dome that makes the funk so damn funky? What am I even talking about? Check this shit out. Nite-Liters, Down and Dirty. And it is! Your Daily Dose:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V68umXWWJAM

Re: Amazing
 

I'd applaud Cruz if he weren't as big an asshole as Trump.