Re: Objectively intelligent.
Was $5 billion enough? https://lawandcrime.com/lawsuit/fede...SEtsFuC-5W9yws
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Re: Well, this sucks.
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Re: Stop burning the house to smoke out the mouse.
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I've seen the critiques of the Standford study. There's a level of inaccuracy. But that doesn't mean the concept - the unassailable fact - that there are enormous numbers of uncounted people who've been exposed to this disease, is untrue. Quote:
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Reopening businesses while continuing social distancing is the middle path forward. Those who must be in close proximity to people will use PPE, those who aren't will use masks and distance themselves, as everyone has already been doing when they go to the store. The only challenge I see is for sporting events, concerts, bars, and restaurants. That's going to be tricky. Quote:
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What you have in that study is useful, but incomplete - a percentage based on those healthy enough to be out and about. We don't know what the adjustment would be, but we know it would cause the unreported # to increase. The question is whether a corresponding unreported covid death # increases at a similar rate. Also, regarding the increased overall death #, how can you assume a significant number of them are covid related? We know a significant number of them are people who died of other causes because they could not get care from an overburdened ER, or chose to forego care out of fear of acquiring covid at the hospital. Net those against the gross death increase and I suspect you'll see the spread between the unreported cases and unreported deaths drive the death rate down to a fraction of that .142%. And then on top of that, adjust for viral load unique to NYC. In dense areas, one can be hit with this virus over and over before he knows he has it. In a locale like FL, OTOH, where the predicted explosion of cases has not materialized, people acquiring Covid are not likely to endure repeated exposures. That renders NYC's death rate a poor analogue for the rest of the country. Additionally, adjust for NYC's unique exposure to the European mutation of Covid that ripped through Italy. It appears the Chinese variant that stalked the west coast (and much of the rest of the country if the stories about it being here since December prove true) is not as deadly. One final adjustment - pull out the health care workers in NYC who have been infected. They're not representative of the population at large as they're being daily submersed in a uniquely virus rich environment. The emerging math draws a picture of a cruel and capricious disease with an elevated kill rate in densely populated areas and much lower kill rate in less densely populated areas. Genetics and co-morbidities also play a part. But in aggregate, it appears a lot closer to the regular flu than the Spanish Flu. This suggests novelty and fear of being the outlier are driving a lot of our reactions, which is understandable. As we acquire solid information, however, we must be willing to let those initial fearful reactions fade a bit in favor of a more circumspect approach. That would be the "middle path" which involves reopening incrementally with precautions, including social distancing, in place. It also involves putting aside this crazy tribalism that has people pitting health vs. economics. These things are inextricably intertwined and not in competition. I say this as someone who has 0.000% chance of not acquiring this at some point, given what my spouse and I are doing to make money we need to survive (and to keep employees at work). But I'd also say this to anyone who thinks he isn't going to get this. Chances are much, much greater that you will in fact get it. Your chances of avoiding it long enough for a vaccine to emerge are low, even with social distancing. Your best hope is that you can hold out long enough for a therapy that stops the virus from putting you in the hospital. I think most people understand they're going to be forced to take risks and will sooner or later dance with this virus. But they're moving thru a mix of the anger, bargaining, and depression phases of the five stages of grief, and having a tough time coming to acceptance, lashing out at the notion of doing so. Right, well, we all wish we had a better hand. But these are the cards dealt. I think looking at the bright side, that this isn't going to kill a whole lot of us, is helpful. YMMV. |
Re: Stop burning the house to smoke out the mouse.
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Re: Stop burning the house to smoke out the mouse.
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As to your second paragraph, I’ve struggled with how to address that illogic. My wife says I should not be as blunt as you and I have been here. But the counter to that is that to allow that delusional thinking to persist stymies efforts to develop a sensible solution. Every person thinking he can duck this thing until we get a vaccine is a problem. I disagree with you about the number of these people among us, but whatever it is, I definitely think that they all need to have the narrative in their head adjusted to reality. People need to wrap their psyches around the idea they are very likely to get it before this is under control. 24/7 news is the biggest problem here. It’s a miracle opportunity for them — endless doom porn. And it serves their interests to make it worse by scaring people as much as possible. The more fear, the longer it takes for the economy to resume, the more people stay shut-in and read more doom porn. And the media loves pushing the “economy vs. health concerns” false choice. It’s the new Red v. Blue they can serve their credulous audiences. 24/7 news has a captured market it can keep and grow by causing the economy to get worse. It’s a golden ticket for them. |
Re: Stop burning the house to smoke out the mouse.
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Early January, Pre-Covid, my wife and I were sick and we went to a local urgent care on a Saturday to get tested for the flu, which we had. We wore masks. An Asian guy walked in and did a double take saying "I never saw a Caucasian wear a mask before." Perhaps we were culturally indoctrinated to that from a trip to Japan late last year where, I'd say 80% of the people on the subway were wearing masks. On to the law topic, at my place no one has broached the subject of when juries might get impaneled again. I got hushed for saying Spring 2021, at least in civil cases. |
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There is some indication though that BCG, the vaccine used for TB in much of the less developed world, has an impact on susceptibility to coronavirus suggesting that vaccines can be done. I know of a couple companies working on vaccines that aren't in the eye of the press, and they have some pretty smart people who think it is doable. |
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>>There are as yet no vaccines or antiviral drugs to prevent or treat human coronavirus infections. |
Re: Stop burning the house to smoke out the mouse.
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If you disregard the people who get killed by the virus, the death rate is a lot lower. I will give you that. Quote:
It's funny, when you talk about the death toll from flu, do you disregard the people who were exposed multiple times in dense cities, and who had co-morbidities, and who were healthcare workers? No, of course you don't. Because you're not trying to minimize that number. Quote:
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If there were a flood and it killed 40% of the population of Allentown, Pa., would you say, look at the bright side -- this isn't going to kill a whole lot of us? Not sure why you try so hard to be contrarian. We are all taking risks right now. There is no zero-risk strategy. If you want to try to persuade people that you are weighing the risks and benefits right, you need to start by not bullshitting about how low the death rate is. |
Re: Stop burning the house to smoke out the mouse.
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Re: Stop burning the house to smoke out the mouse.
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But I can only do so much. I’m regularly in a health care business. I’m basically running it from the finance side now. I’m going to get it. Chances are you are going to get it. We are all probably going to get it. Maybe some of us will get it after a consistently good therapy is found. Many of us won’t. People need to stop thinking the world is frozen until there’s a vaccine or therapy or adequate contact tracing and testing. It’s not. No one is paying the fixed costs for anything with a piece of paper that says, “World frozen for now. Will pay when world unfrozen.” I wish it were that way, but it can’t be. |
Re: Stop burning the house to smoke out the mouse.
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2. We are not waiting and cannot wait for contact tracing. Drive that through your skull. We don’t have that kind of time. (Don’t like that? Take it up with those lenders you’re so keen on protecting. Ask them how they’ll feel about choking down six months of 20% default rates. Get back to me with their responses.) 3. If we were talking about the death rate from the flu, I would absolutely include the analysis of co-morbidities, along with all other adjustments. In fact, we do exactly that already. Whenever we talk of flu deaths, we note they’re mostly confined to the compromised and elderly. So please, don’t raise a facile argument like that and pretend you’re saying something of value. 4. I’m not saying fuck it, let’s go. You continually ignore that because you can’t deal with the fact that I am actually arguing for continuing social distancing as much as possible. If you wish to argue with the “fuck it, let’s go” point, argue with Less. 5. 500,000 dead is nothing compared to what you’ll get if we don’t start incrementally, carefully, reopening. You’re one of the dimwits who’s only looking at the immediate health crisis side of the ledger. Wanna know what a depression is? A fucking health crisis. Mass death over a longer time period. You’re so myopically focused you don’t even see that all you’re doing is shifting the dates of deaths. X over near term vs. XXX over the longer. ETA: You haven’t said as much, but I’d assume you favor a one size fits all approach. Please tell m I’m wrong and you’re not dumb enough to think we need to keep Bumfuck Falls, SD on lockdown until the numbers fall in Maryland. ETA2: Thus is all academic. It’s reopening incrementally starting next month whether you like it or not. I hope it opens slowly and carefully, but Less may be predicting the future more accurately. |
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