Quote:
Originally posted by bilmore
(I probably shouldn't say that, as I am stuck at my guess of 64% probability of a Kerry win.)
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Well, if you're stuck there, you've a bag of marbles between your ears. Have you been in a cave on Mars for the past month? Kerry's listing at 70 degrees.
I don't follow all the polls because, well, for every one I find stating that 70% of unmarried women who drive vans like Kerry, I can find anothere where three guys from Vermont called 67 people in Akron and discovered that Bush is leading by 20%. Statistics are crap ina race this close. But nevermind me, counselor... please, refer to your "expert" reports. I have yet to see an "expert" proven wrong on the stand. That. Never. Happens. People who put together stats, well, heck, that's evidence, and evidence trumps independent thinking every time.
But I digress... A horse race this close is decided by organization of message. If you stay on topic and drive one, maybe two, solid points home, you'll beat the guy who using a shotgun approach everytime. Bush is nailing Kerry to the cross on terrorism defense and Kerry's lack of a unifying message. He's telling the jury "This guy stands for nothing more than getting elected" and Kerry is throwing whiffle balls at Bush in response. Kerry's all over the place, changing his message from week to week. One week, he's refusing to attack Bush. The next week he's calling Bush all but a deserter. One week he's a Vietnam hero - the next week Vietnam is "in the past" and its Bush's fault that the topic was ever raised. Kerry needs to adopt Reagan's old theme - "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"* And he needs to beat that theme into the heads of everyone. Otherwise, he's Gore 2004.
Personally, I think the man's inability to take a stand is terminal. His senate survival skills have made him so afraid of risk that he can't do anything without hedging his bets. Hedgers may be smart, but they're not the sort of folks who endear themselves to voters.
I view Bush winning this thing by a thin margin, and its really criminal of the Dems to let that happen. They offered up a corpse this time thinking they never had a chance, and they did. That's what you get when you make decisions exclusively on polls and stats - you're always smarter by half.
* This advice is borrowed from a column by someone I can't recall. If anyone can recall it, its worth posting. It was really enlightening.
