Quote:
Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
If the tooth fairy stops the ongoing civil war and leaves a fully functioning parliamentary democracy under the collective pillow of the Kurds, Shi'ites and Sunnis, that will not be a bad thing.
The differences between Ukraine and Iraq are massive, and do not suggest that our enterprise in Iraq is likely to end well. For example, the forces of democracy in Ukraine appear to have drawn considerable strength from nationalism, and from the desire to have a meddling outside power play less of a role in the country's domestic affairs. We've managed to get those forces working against us in Iraq. Ukraine finds itself in a situation where the use of violence to subvert democracy is so unaccepted that it can only be used minimally (e.g., covert dioxin poisoning). In Iraq, there is much less agreement on the ground rules, if you will.
Not that we're likely to get there anytime soon, but it takes a lot more than a well-run election to find yourself in a durable democracy.
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I think our difference lies in our view of the popularity of the anti-democratic forces native to Iraq.
I see an overwhelming Iraqi support for democracy. Because the tools of modern war are so powerful, I see a very small contingent wielding great disruptive power right now, but I think they start to wander away in the face of the failure to them that is expressed by a succesful election, and in the face of popular Iraqi support for a new government. Iraq is always going to be problematic, for the same reasons Israel is problematic - they're surrounded by hostile groups to whom democratic rule is anathema - and they are going to have to keep a powerful army, but it will be (if this works) an outward-looking one, not one (like the rest of the entire region) that guards against its own.
In the absence of SH's threats, and in the absence of his mass murdering, and in the presence of an Iraqi citizenry that seems to want this, I'm willing to call the glass half full.
