Quote:
Originally posted by ThurgreedMarshall
How is this an explanation?: "Notice that there are twice as many red sections as blue. In other words, you are twice as likely to win if you switch than if you don't switch!"
Anyone? Anyone?
TM
|
I've read this before and disagree with it. And decided that Marilyn vos Savant is a skanky whore.
As I read the explanation, the odds don't change if there is no interference -- i.e., if you pick one of three doors, and I eliminate a wrong door, the odds of you getting the right door by switching are 50/50.
The statistics change if Monty Hall is telling you to switch. And I think that this is not a matter of probability, but a matter of statistics -- the two are different and the difference is important; probability is math, statistics is history.
The problem immediately gets into an area where statistics becomes useless -- Monty knows where the car is. What if he doesn't like you? Is constipated and cranky that day? Had a booze-and-hooker filled night and makes a mistake?
Anyway, that's my 2 cents.
