05-18-2005, 12:29 PM
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#1577
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Proud Holder-Post 200,000
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Corner Office
Posts: 86,149
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Who likes Math?
Quote:
Originally posted by Sidd Finch
I've read this before and disagree with it. And decided that Marilyn vos Savant is a skanky whore.
As I read the explanation, the odds don't change if there is no interference -- i.e., if you pick one of three doors, and I eliminate a wrong door, the odds of you getting the right door by switching are 50/50.
The statistics change if Monty Hall is telling you to switch. And I think that this is not a matter of probability, but a matter of statistics -- the two are different and the difference is important; probability is math, statistics is history.
The problem immediately gets into an area where statistics becomes useless -- Monty knows where the car is. What if he doesn't like you? Is constipated and cranky that day? Had a booze-and-hooker filled night and makes a mistake?
Anyway, that's my 2 cents.
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http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtm...MakeaDeal.html
this lets you prove it to yourself....
__________________
I will not suffer a fool- but I do seem to read a lot of their posts
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