Quote:
Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I cannot explain this, but I have read enough of Parade -- I could say I read it just for Walter Scott's Personality Parade, but who would believe me? -- to know that Marilyn Vos Savant (the world's smartest person (tm)) (not her real name, I'm thinking) can explain this up and down. I would ask your secretary to run down her explanation. Or, have her look here:
Or, if you don't want to ask her to do this, just look at this.
STP, no doubt. I'm sure someone beat me to the Walter Scott thing.
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uuuuuggghhhhh did you have to post that huge retouched-to-within-an-inch-of-its-life picture of her face?
ETA but thanks for
"The solution to the problem is yes; the chance of winning the car is doubled when the contestant switches to another door rather than sticking with the original choice.
There are three possible scenarios, all with equal probability (1/3):
The contestant picks goat number one. Monty picks goat number two. Switching will win the car.
The contestant picks goat number two. Monty picks goat number one. Switching will win the car.
The contestant picks the car. Monty picks either of the two goats. Switching will lose. "
