Quote:
Originally Posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
1) I said in some respects, reflecting that SB matchups are different from the large majority of regular season games, and the incentives facing coaches and players are different.
[spoiler space: math is hard]
2) To back that up, given that around 6-8% of regular season games go into overtime, I calculated the likelihood that we would see 0 superbowls (out of 43) have an overtime if the percentages were the same. There is less than a 5% chance of that occurring, which using ordinary statistical assumptions means that the chances of the SB going into overtime are lower than for regular season games.
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All very impressive. But I would prefer using the larger number of games as a guide, especially since I'm sure that if we had a more signficant number of Superbowl games to include in your calculus, the more the numbers would look like those of the regular season. Besides, I don't think the person who made up the rules took into account the oh-so-smaller likelihood of a Superbowl game not going to OT than a regular season game, when the rules were drafted.
If you can say that you wouldn't care which rule was applied if you had the same two numbers in your Superbowl box (and I'm not really sure if that's what you're trying to say with your statistical analysis), then I guess we just have different ideas on betting altogether.
TM
