Quote:
Originally Posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
Definitely somewhere across midfield, where a punt is likely to net only 20-30 yards.
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I think
this is the appropriate grey zone, not your own 30. In the situation you bring up, if you have a punter who can place it inside the 20 yard line in that situation, I say, punt it. If you don't, it might make sense to go for it. But I still think the appropriate determination is to decide how far
in total the other team will have to go if you punt vs. if you go for it and fail.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
What's remarkable is that 5 years ago Bellicheck was in Peyton's head, and Manning couldn't solve anything Bellicheck did. Now it's the other way around--Bellichek is afraid of Manning regardless. If the Colts fans were sharper, they would have started in with a "Who's Your Daddy?" chant.
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I think you're overstating. Peyton's not in Belichick's head. His defense is just not as good, no? Or, at least Belichick doesn't think so.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
ETA: Here's the clearest analysis of whether the decision made sense, and this guy says " yes". He also notes that the third-down pass was more misguided if the plan was to go for it anyway. |
"Sheer data, which Burke has compiled and stored like a librarian, argues the point. On average, an offense operating outside the red zone will make the first down on fourth and 2 60 percent of the time. When teams face the situation the Colts would have had if the Patriots failed - two minutes left, needing a touchdown, at roughly the opposing 30 - they score 53 percent of the time."
This does nothing for me. Unless he has crunched the numbers for these two teams and their tendencies
this season, why would you depend on these numbers to make a decision. It's like Girardi pulling a right hander who is on fire, striking out the first two batters in an inning, to replace him with a lefty to face a lefty based on the league numbers of lefties facing lefties. If we're going to go solely by league average numbers, why do we have coaches at all?
"Now, what if the Patriots had punted? On average, the net punt would have been 38 yards, and the Colts would have taken over on their 34. Statistically, teams will
score 30 percent of the time in that situation, meaning a punt gave the Patriots the 70 percent chance to win."
Will score what? A touchdown? A field goal? And, again, this speaks to league averages versus the numbers of the Patriots and Colts. If Belichick stood up and said, "Based on how our defense was playing [or, more appropriately for a head coach, how the Colts had moved the ball the last few possessions], I felt like we had a better chance trying to pick up the two yards," I would disagree, but at least we'd have an explanation (and maybe he's said this, although, based on past press conferences, I doubt it). But these "on average" stats don't mean much, in my opinion. Especially since we all know he would have punt the ball if the game was 6-0 and they were playing the Raiders.
TM
