Quote:
Originally Posted by Adder
This is bizarre and non-sensical. To give you one simple example, which does not mean that I am unaware of your cosmic approach to all things magically "business" about which you have deep personal insight born of experience, but what's temporary about a bridge or a broadband network? Do you see why "people will be using the bridge for commerce for years" is a direct response to your assertion that this type of stimulus fades? It's not a question of "aggregation." It's question of whether you are dismissing this effect or just ignoring it.
And if you respond that the bridge might need to be replaced in 50 years, or that the broadband network will be obsolete in five I might just have to put you on ignore after all.
Have you ever stopped to consider that maybe you don't make sense or could be wrong sometimes?
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I'm nonsensical? You just argued that the multiplier on a bridge, or a broadband network, is indefinite. And this demonstrates, perfectly, that you are a hopeless fucking academic who doesn't know shit about the subject on which he pontificates on any real, practical level.
When a bridge is completed, the construction people are done. Finished. One off project, and then it's Over. The suppliers are done, the GCs, done, subs done, the vendors, everybody - done. And done quickly. That removes 80% of the economic activity that project creates. It is true, as you note, that there is residual activity accruing from future maintenance of the bridge, and the economic activity that might spring up around it (stores, gas stations, etc.), and some new business done because of the new connection. But the lion's share of the impact? Unquestionably temporary. And in a time of huge economic uncertainty, and decreasing access to credit, the chances of substantial business impact appearing around the bridge, just because, "Hey! It's a new bridge!" is all the less likely. Do you think guys putting up big box stores do so solely because a new bridge is built? It is a factor. But hardly the most important. They look at demographics, they look at the consumer market broadly. The developers first have to land an anchor tenant (you know what that is, yes?), and the anchor is usually some national retailer. National retailers make decisions in large part based on their stock prices ("Can we afford to expand and still meet expectations for next quarter?"). Those beancounters look at stimulus as welfare - a temporary fix that cures the symptom, not the problem. In this climate, "But there's a new bridge nearby!" alone isn't going to bring Costco. You are grossly overestimating the impact of infrastructure spending. And this is not shocking - you have looked at the thing in the most simplistic, business illiterate, but academically sound fashion one could.
Broadband? Brilliant. The govt needs to build up more broadband... Where do I start? This will enhance what? Do you think development follows broadband? You surely realize that broadband does zilch for retailers other than Amazon, and is a pipeline of communication enhancement that actually decreases development (fewer office towers and corporate parks for workers who telecommute, to cite one example).
Did you ever stop to think you sound like a gunner in Econ 101?
