Quote:
Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall
You keep repeating this. It makes no sense. The market account for a lunatic in the most powerful office in the world. Offending Putin into war, tossing out trade agreements at a whim, attacking an ally because they tweeted criticism--we can't even think of all of the things that psycho could affect if he were to hold office. I think you think he will act in a sane way (or will be controlled--by who, I have no clue) if he were to win. But your wishful thinking does not make it so.
TM
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Britain left the EU - a huge event. The market dropped 800 points over a couple days and was back over 18k after a couple more. Putin annexes Crimea. Market shrugs it off. Job reports comes in shockingly low last month? To the market, it's just noise. Etc... Everything is a mere hiccup at worst.
The markets have had a year to watch this clown. Is he volatile? Yes. But is he such a loose cannon he can overcome the checks and balances designed to keep us from electing our own Caligula? No. And the markets wisely understand this. Trump will create turmoil, and the markets will not like it for a time. But much as they've throw a hissy fit at the notion of rate increases, checking Yellen from being more aggressive, the big market participants will demand that the inexorable climb upward be resumed, Trump Presidency be dammed.
I could see Trump as a positive for the market because he'd create enough turmoil to keep rates depressed for an even longer time than they're already likely to be.
Is he the market's preferred winner? Hell no. You're absolutely right they want Hillary. They like calm. But the markets would, in relatively short order, spin a Trump Presidency to their advantage. They will make lemonade from even rotten lemons. The march upward will be resumed. And everyone involved will continue to hate it, predict it will crash, and discuss how things like Trump and Brexit will surely crater it. The participants are so numb (and a lot of them robots) at this point, they'll climb a wall of worry higher than even Trump could build.
