Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski
Michigan votes pretty heavily for the D for president most times. The last R to win might have been Bush in 88. BUT we also voted heavily to ban Affirmative Action and Gay Marriage. The Prez/Hate votes were pretty similar other than working class whites in a place called Macomb County. There is certainly a chnace Trump takes some of those who voted for Ds in the past.
The Rs "losing black votes" is not a thing. Woman sure, but maybe they didn't count on that?
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This, from Nate Silver, is a great tool for this analysis.
Hillary will be lucky to win as high a percentage of Black votes as Obama, and lucky to get as high a turnout as he did. But Trump is making that more likely. And Georgia and North Carolina could easily swing to the Dems based on black turnout.
However, Hillary may beat Obama among Hispanics on both percentage of vote and turnout. But Hispanics have very low rates of voting. She needs marked improvement in both vote and turnout, and then Arizona and Texas come within reach. If the republicans improved their position among hispanics, it would be a big problem for the Dems in several states, but that is unlikely to occur.
For Trump's core, the uneducated white voters, he needs to get to something like a 50% spoint spread in that demographic alone to flip enough states to win, assuming all others stay at 2012 levels. Even something like a 40% spread only flips Ohio and Iowa without movement elsewhere.
My takeaway is that the race is going to be fought out among every demographic.
The one thing this isn't useful for is testing the gender gap. Hopefully that will be included in version 2.
