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Old 04-26-2017, 02:18 PM   #4836
Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
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Join Date: Mar 2003
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SEC_Chick View Post
http://abc13.com/politics/96-percent...again/1906546/

Vote again?
Among Americans who say they voted in the 2016 election, 46 percent say they voted for Hillary Clinton and 43 percent for Trump, very close to the 2-point margin in the actual popular vote results. However, while Trump would retain almost all of his support if the election were held again today (96 percent), fewer of Clinton's supporters say they'd stick with her (85 percent), producing a 40-43 percent Clinton-Trump result in this hypothetical re-do among self-reported 2016 voters.

That's not because former Clinton supporters would now back Trump; only 2 percent of them say they'd do so, similar to the 1 percent of Trump voters who say they'd switch to Clinton. Instead, they're more apt to say they'd vote for a third-party candidate or wouldn't vote.

In a cautionary note to her party, Clinton's 6-point drop in a hypothetical mulligan election relates to views of whether the Democratic Party is in touch with peoples' concerns. Although the sample sizes are small, those who say the party is out of touch are less likely to say they'd support Clinton again, compared with those who see it as in touch.

Still, there's no strong evidence that defectors primarily come from groups that favored Bernie Sanders in the primary. There are no broad differences by age, and liberals are 9 points more likely than moderates and conservatives to stick with Clinton. Similarly, nonwhites are 10 points more likely than whites to say they would not support Clinton again, with more than a third of them heading to the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson.




I think that the Democratic Party Chair crapping all over the 20% or so of Dems who do identify as pro-life was before the poll. So the number of Dems who think the party is out of touch may have increased a bit.
Interesting. I'll have to look at that one. Dynamics of a poll where there is not a real election anymore are always not terribly predictive (in particular on third parties - a sizable and regularly problematic portion of the Democratic vote, and a smaller but also problematic part of the Republican vote, always likes the idea of third parties when no election is on and then turns out and votes for their traditional party when it counts. But it still looks interesting.

I actually think there is more movement to Dems today in the center than on the left - that Bernie is not representative of where Dems will find more votes.

So you're not going to send McMullin a few pesos for his Congressional race in Utah?
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