Quote:
Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield
Both parties are splitting. The extreme left on the D side and extreme right on the R side are unique parties, separate from their respective moderate wings.
Moderate Ds and moderate Rs (those being primarily focused on pocketbook issues) are closer to each other than they are to their respective extreme wings.
I see:
1. A right wing populist R party (socially conservative, anti-immigrant, isolationist, desirous of European safety net programs for "natives" [themselves] only, protectionist);
2. A moderate R party (socially moderate, against zealous regulation, free trade, emphasizing above all else neo-liberal economic policy);
3. A left wing populist D party (socially liberal, desirous of European safety net programs, protectionist); and,
4. A moderate D party (socially moderate, pro regulation, free trade, emphasizing above all else neo-liberal economic policy with enhancement of safety nets for those harmed by globalization/automation).
1 and 3 are actually quite close. They unite on the major economic issue of protectionism, and split on the major issue of who gets covered by enhanced safety nets (the right wants them limited to 'Muricans, the left wants them expanded broadly). These two groups could come together.
2 and 4 are awfully close. They unite on the major economic issues of free trade and neo-liberal economic policy. They also aren't too far apart on social issues. Like the other two, they split over spending on safety nets. And they diverge on regulation, but not a ton (moderates recognize there has to be some form of regulation).
Right now, one could say there are two parties: Extremists vs. Moderates. Or it could be 4 parties (Crazy Rs, Crazy Ds, mod Rs, Mod Ds). One could also see a scenario where the Moderate Rs and Ds make peace with the extreme Left, creating a scenario in which its those three together versus the Extreme Right. Or it could be Moderate Rs and Ds together vs. the extreme Right, on one hand, and the Left on the other.
But I don't see the Warren/Bernie wing of the D party making peace with the Schumer wing. And I don't see the Bannon wing of the R party making peace with the McConnell wing.
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It's been a generation since any moderate Republicans have been elected anywhere. There are no Rockefeller Republicans any more. My governor, who qualifies as moderate in today's republican party, would have been to the right of Nixon in the 60s. and people like him don't have enough umph to form a party. There are a handful of them in blue states that the rest of the Rs tolerate only because it leaves them a blue state foothold. In the long run, the last remaining ones will go down to the trumpsters.
If there is a republican split, it will be the ultra-nationalist trump voters versus the fundies. Each is a more powerful faction than any so-called moderates.
Dems aren't going to split. We fundamentally agree on most policy issues, it's more a question of approach than policy.
