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[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Both parties are splitting. The extreme left on the D side and extreme right on the R side are unique parties, separate from their respective moderate wings.

Moderate Ds and moderate Rs (those being primarily focused on pocketbook issues) are closer to each other than they are to their respective extreme wings.

I see:

1. A right wing populist R party (socially conservative, anti-immigrant, isolationist, desirous of European safety net programs for "natives" [themselves] only, protectionist);
2. A moderate R party (socially moderate, against zealous regulation, free trade, emphasizing above all else neo-liberal economic policy);
3. A left wing populist D party (socially liberal, desirous of European safety net programs, protectionist); and,
4. A moderate D party (socially moderate, pro regulation, free trade, emphasizing above all else neo-liberal economic policy with enhancement of safety nets for those harmed by globalization/automation).

1 and 3 are actually quite close. They unite on the major economic issue of protectionism, and split on the major issue of who gets covered by enhanced safety nets (the right wants them limited to 'Muricans, the left wants them expanded broadly). If these two groups were smart, they'd come together. Thankfully, they're not.

2 and 4 are awfully close. They unite on the major economic issues of free trade and neo-liberal economic policy. They also aren't too far apart on social issues. Like the other two, they split over spending on safety nets. And they diverge on regulation, but not a ton (all moderates recognize there has to be some form of regulation).

Right now, one could say there are two parties: Extremists vs. Moderates. Or it could be 4 parties (Crazy Rs, Crazy Ds, mod Rs, Mod Ds). One could also see the Moderate Rs and Ds making peace with the extreme Left, creating a scenario in which its those three together versus the Extreme Right. Or it could be Moderate Rs and Ds together vs. the extreme Right, on one hand, and the Left on the other.

But I don't see the Warren/Bernie wing of the D party making peace with the Schumer wing. And I don't see the Bannon wing of the R party making peace with the McConnell wing.

Last week, Will Rogers said, "I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat."

No, wait, he said that several decades ago.

Also, what you call a "moderate R" is also what you call a "moderate D". As an empirical matter, those individuals are found these days almost entirely within the Democratic Party. Very few people identify as Republicans. They identify as conservatives, and understand that the party which is the vehicle for their views and those of people like them is the Republican Party. The essence of being a conservative is not so much about having particular policy views as it is about reacting to the left. Conservatives are about reaction, about moving right, which is why they keep moving farther to the right. They are like addicts who need more and more of the drug to get a high. Which is disturbing for many reasons, one of which is that you wonder what comes after Donald Trump and where it will end.