LawTalkers - View Single Post - Mother, mother, mother

Hank Chinaski · 03-15-2018, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

The state of the election in the last 10 days was pretty clear:

(1) RCP, which listed the last three polls only in their metrics, and so in the last week became a daily polling average, showed a very tight race with a lot of movement toward Trump after the Comey Letter;
(2) 438, which did an weighting metric based on historical accuracy of polls, poll size, movement, and past electoral results, was up to about a 30% chance of Trump Victory, and was clearly moving toward Trump;
(3) Other weighted polls were showing a much lower chance of Trump Victory.

The Clinton approach of broadening the states in play was rapidly being reversed, with sudden last minute stops scheduled for Clinton and her major surrogates in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and to a much lesser extent, Wisconsin, now being thought of as a "blue wall". Clinton spent all of election day doing quick stops in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

We. Watched. The. Train. Wreck.

President Obama (and the candidate in 2008) did not set foot in Michigan after September, cuz it was won. You see him and hil in mi and Pa the week before the election? I knew what that meant.