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Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield
I'm with GGG on this. Putin's strategy, abetted by Trump and Farage, is to stop globalization and retain a regional sphere of influence. I believe Putin realizes that a decade or so more of liberal globalization will make it impossible for dictators to retain meaningful control of their states.
Putin is a dinosaur. He does not want to be challenged by global economic actors within his perceived sphere of control. His best and only way of walling off the world is by creating conflicts between regions. The tried and true way of doing this is to start a trade war/cold war. This leads to nationalism and regionalism, and impedes trade and cooperation.
But I don't think it's going to work for Putin this time around. The internet has connected us in a way that frustrates this sort of mercantilism. Too many powerful multinational actors, too many connections... I think the horse left the barn here a long time ago, and liberal, global trade will overcome all of Putin's, Trump's, and Farage's efforts to stanch it.
(What's of far more concern to me is the new Chinese policy of "social credit." If you've not read of this, do so. It's the most insidious form of oppression and control I've ever seen... straight out of Fahrenheit 451 or Brave New World. While we in the west and Putin try to figure out how to control our populations with borders, these sick and evil fucks in China have learned how to control their people with a perverse form of currency.)
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Across the western world, you see conservative political parties turning away from support for free markets, and turning towards controls on free movement and trade. I'm not sure why you are focused on Putin -- he may try to abet and exploit this shift, but it's not about him. Actually, I would suggest that conservative support for free markets in the second half of the last century came out of the marriage of corporate interests and opposition to Communism, and once the Soviet Union fell apart and ceased to be a major threat, corporate interests alone were not enough to keep conservative parties oriented to free trade. Trump recognized the political potential in opposing free trade, but it's not just him -- it's also Brexit, and similar movements in other developed countries.
Free trade may have a lot of benefits for a lot of people, but those benefits are pretty diffused and can be hard to see. The whole Brexit episode should demonstrate that the stupidity of closing borders may not be an obstacle.
