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I just picked one year to illustrate my point. Step back. We have been in a long expansion which started early in the Obama Administration and has continued to the present. If you want to make a case for Trump, go nuts, but the obvious story is that he inherited a good economy from Obama and hasn't fucked it up. The two big things he has done that plausibly would make a difference are the tax cut, which is unnecessary stimulus, and trade policy, which is not helping but hasn't blown things up (yet).
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I'm not going to go all Robert Shiller here, but sentiment counts for something. He's enhanced sentiment among small to mid-sized businesses. It took a while, as unpredictability was cancelling out that positive sentiment. But that seems to have passed for the moment. It's not morning in America, of course. It's more like morning in Bizarro America. But respected analysts are now saying we may not see a recession for another two years. That could be the sign of a top. But as I said earlier, everyone making that bet for the past ten months has fallen down the proverbial wall of worry.
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Look, you know what sector I'm in. Are folks happy that the federal government isn't pretty to regulate? Sure. Does it really help businesses grow? I am skeptical.
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You should be. I could see the traditional players buying off Trump's people and enhancing regulation of your sector. Trump and his people are nothing if not for sale.
I also agree with you in a broader sense. Deregulation doesn't translate into profits immediately. The only thing that does that is dollars in the hands of consumers. (I subscribe to the view that all real growth is ultimately driven by consumer spending.) That happens two ways: Wage or credit growth. Deregulation allows for the latter. The former is of course far more preferable.
ETA: I could entertain the argument that regulation enhances profits, particularly in emerging sectors where bigger players get to make those regs to suit their interests and preclude competition. But that's not true profit. That's creating and exploiting a barrier to entry. That's a lot of what's deeply wrong with regulation and law in this country.
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No. But (a) you do like playing the provocateur, and (b) the story you've told is missing the part where you explain how collecting the underpants leads to PROFITS.
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I started this by saying Trump was working out well for my family, as we've exposure to domestic middle class consumers. I can confidently say that, even with costs of operation increasing, I assume as a result of inflation, profits have increased significantly post-Trump. It's entirely correlation, but looking for other causes, I'm coming up short. Things were moving upward during Obama's tenure, but not at the same rate.
I'm as surprised as anyone. But pleasantly so.
