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Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield
I agree with much of this. I also agree that he will go from sugar to coke to meth to to keep the numbers where he thinks they ought to be. He knows that if the economy tanks, given his fragile popularity, he's toast.
I don't think gutting ACA jobs is a big deal. HC has low multiplier effect. If Trump would get off his ass on infrastructure, he could produce 1/2 the number of those ACA jobs with 3X the multiplier effect.
But my main point was on sentiment. For reasons I cannot grasp, he's shifted sentiment among business owners. It should not work. Particularly in development, the cost increases from the tariffs (between 10-20%) should have strong negative impact. But so far? Not seeing it. But YMMV. And it's still early. Maybe it's coming. But maybe not.
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HC has a low multiplier? WTF are you talking about?
Two big pluses of ACA job growth is that it is very dispersed - healthcare is one of the few industries that is a significant employer everywhere, usually a hospital or two are among the four or five top employers in every town of any size - and that the jobs pay decent wages. One downside is filling the needs takes time, so the ACA job growth has been a steady contributor even during the Trump years when key provisions were getting gutted, because the hiring queue is long.
Remember, the tariffs all have the sugar high effect but do lasting damage. Before they go into effect there is a rapid and large ramp up in demand. The Chinese bought every soybean they could in April and May at $10+ and then the price plunged to about $8 but there was no inventory left. Now farmers are drying out the fall crop and filling every bin available (really, invest in grain elevators right now - booming business) because nothing is selling - many are hoping the tariffs will be lifted and prices will be back up before they have to sell. Meanwhile, Brazil is planting enormous soybean crops that will change the face of the industry, and those crops get harvested next spring.
If I'm a big grower, I'm going to adjust my crop next year and grow less soy. If I'm a family farmer who has been growing soy for the last three generations, I know a lot more about growing soy than anything else and am reluctant to change. Guess who gets killed next year?
