Quote:
Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall
So, this guy is basically saying what I've been saying, except he hasn't yet come to the conclusion that Biden's numbers are strongest in these states because he is a safe, old white man. He'll get there.
Let me know when he starts digging in to the difference between a Biden candidacy and a Warren candidacy when it comes to flipping crucial senate seats. If there is even a whiff of a chance of getting McConnell the fuck out of his seat and/or retaking the Senate because Biden is polling 1% higher than Warren in those states, motherfuckers better get over this "I need a true progressive" bullshit, vote for Biden and watch him rubber stamp everything Dems force down Republicans' throats for the next 8 years.
TM
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Josh's analysis of the Marquette poll is the best argument based on "electability" I've seen so far. If only Biden hadn't blown it so often before, and if only it weren't one poll before labor day.
But I'm not at all sure a Senate based analysis would say the same thing. To the extent we're focusing on suburban voters (Colorado, Arizona), I think Warren probably runs at least as strongly and has a better record in a clutch. To the extent we're focusing on African American voters (e.g., Alabama, but not really Maine, Colorado, or Arizona), Biden probably is the stronger of the two.
I actually think if we were looking solely at electability there would be several candidates deeper in the pack who would be stronger. To really analyze that, you need cross tabs in polls that weed out the people voting based on name recognition, and you'd need to look at hardness versus softness of support and persuadability, but I'm betting only the candidates and the parties have polls at those levels right now.
