Quote:
Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
Josh's analysis of the Marquette poll is the best argument based on "electability" I've seen so far. If only Biden hadn't blown it so often before, and if only it weren't one poll before labor day.
But I'm not at all sure a Senate based analysis would say the same thing. To the extent we're focusing on suburban voters (Colorado, Arizona), I think Warren probably runs at least as strongly and has a better record in a clutch. To the extent we're focusing on African American voters (e.g., Alabama, but not really Maine, Colorado, or Arizona), Biden probably is the stronger of the two.
I actually think if we were looking solely at electability there would be several candidates deeper in the pack who would be stronger. To really analyze that, you need cross tabs in polls that weed out the people voting based on name recognition, and you'd need to look at hardness versus softness of support and persuadability, but I'm betting only the candidates and the parties have polls at those levels right now.
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Dude, I appreciate the thoughtful analysis. I read all of it very carefully. But this is very simple. And it's the last time I'm going to do this.
- Barack Obama won the Presidency and held it
- All kinds of white people felt/feel threatened (including a good portion of those who voted for him)
- White people decided that the guy who told them they were still in charge was the guy
- A lot of those people thought Trump was mostly harmless and not really interested in governing
- A lot of those people are shocked at how horrific he and his Administration have been
- Those people are looking for a safe alternative--they want Obama without all the scary implications of their shaky standing in a changing world. That person is Biden, who will smile and talk about his dead son, and who will feel like the nice, white grandpa they like to think their racist grandpa is
- You can talk about black voters and the Latino vote and whatever demographic you want, but the key to this election is white people. Full stop.
- Biden will make gaffe after gaffe. He has already! Warren can propose actual plans, Bernie can promise the world. None of that shit will change the fact that Biden will comfort white people--white people in Kentucky (including the military base that just lost its new middle school funds to Trump's wall), white people in Arizona, Montana, Alabama, Maine, Colorado, Alaska, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.--the ones who don't go to fucking rallies, the ones Hillary neglected and who thought she was a phony, the ones who won't vote for a smart woman with plans or a Jew, or a black woman, or a charismatic gay man. You know...the ones who will decide this election
It sucks. It's sad. I want Warren. But what I want doesn't fucking matter. What matters is putting up the person, or combination of people, who will win by the most votes. Even if they win by a large margin, a slightly larger margin will be truly significant. We need to wipe Republicans out of the House. We need to flip the Senate (and I don't care how we do it). We need to make the 2018 wave look like a ripple in a puddle. So, until you or Adder or Ty
and the poll numbers show me that any other choice will make that happen, Biden is the guy. His numbers aren't moving for a reason.
Maybe part of that reason is that the Democratic field is too crowded. But the best thing for this country right now is for the race for the Democratic nod end and everyone put their considerable weight behind the nominee. The fighting and the accusations of racism and the bringing up of shit that happened 40 fucking years ago is going to weaken the nominee. It did last time when Bernie proved he was as big of a narcissistic asshole as anyone who's ever run for President. It will again.
Everyone outside of the top 3, need to fucking go. Stop trying to trade your dropping out of the race for a cabinet position, you selfish fucking pricks. This is an emergency. Leave. Go. Good bye.
TM
