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Originally Posted by Icky Thump
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Kind of a redundant action. Nobody’s applying or qualifying for shit anyway, as no bank could credibly believe the borrower would definitely have a job in two months.
Half the loans qualified today would never close because the borrower would lose their jobs before closing.
The market’s partly delusional. It’s not pricing in the lag between reopen and full resumption of consumer spending. And it definitely wants to climb as high as possible before it collapses. The big boys want one more run of Main Street and other suckers buying the dip.
There’s also a lot of stock pickers operating on the insane assumption certain sectors are significantly immune. I see no sector escaping this. Picking winners here is finding companies merely significantly damaged versus those obliterated.
We’re going to need a national moratorium on all fixed debt obligations for 3-6 months. You cannot fix this with a cash hose.
But ask yourself, if we did that, who would lose? Well, banks and many investors. Okay. But they’re both going to get killed anyway. Banks are fucked. They just don’t know it yet. And investors? If you aren’t out, well, good luck on a real long hold and road back.
Also, as the people outside HC and insurance who think they’re going continue working right through this start losing jobs, things will clarify. Wait for the white collar layoffs to really take hold. Then the panic will set in and you’ll see the market go insane. Lots of folks are still in the denial phase of the five stages of grief.
I’ve got one more month of receivables before I know I’ll go dry. Then it’s live like a hermit and spend like you’re on welfare until this is over. YMMV, but 75% of the country is going there, quickly.
Ya think anyone’s going to be paying lawyers for elective shit in the next few months? Closings? Ha. Starting lawsuits of choice? Forget it. Dealing with regulators? What regulators? Settling the big plaintiff’s cases? Well, maybe a few defendants will see this as leverage to settle at discount, but more will just hoard their money and see if the plaintiff’s firm collapses, which is entirely possible. Criminal lawyers can’t even get into court in most places!
75% of the country is going to be dormant soon. And I’d say half of those are going to be defaulting in the next 30 days.
We’re on the fucking Edmund Fitzgerald, and until those of us who think we can survive realize it, we’re going to dither thru dipshit half measure fixes and futile Fed interventions.
Freeze time. Freeze everything for 3 months except essential services. Nobody owes any fixed payment, lease, loan, or credit card. It’s like the country simply goes into a coma.
There is no other way.
