Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
The medical stuff is interesting because we're stuck at home and need to obsess about something. But if you're counseling people about reopening, I'm not sure what difference it makes. I don't see how we get anywhere near normal without much, much better and more widespread testing than we have now. We need to be able to identify community spread quickly and to shut it down with contact tracing. If we can't do that, then people are going to avoid social contact and the economy won't be back to normal. Trump continues to fuck up the federal government's management of testing, relative to just about every other country in the world, perhaps because he is more interested in helping donors profiteer from the crisis than in providing a public service. Sadly, the positive externalities from testing are huge, which means you need government to provide it because private industry is never going to have the right incentives.
Until we can test widely, figure out who is sick, isolate them, and track down anyone they may have infected, we're in a world of economic hurt.
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I saw huge lines of cars at Starbucks for the first time in weeks. At a meeting earlier today (distanced), all people could talk about was how there's finally "a plan." Gov. Wolf might be toppled in a coup if he tries to push a lock down beyond mid May.
The desire to resume life is overwhelming, and people are seeing green shoots. As I noted earlier, while some will be scared silly, neuroses tends to go along with intelligence, and it is not the default setting for the average American. You and I may think they're nuts. But what we think doesn't matter much.
There will be a surge in activity in the first two weeks of May. But it will be limited by two things: (1) People with fewer dollars after having been laid off; and, (2) Emphasis on necessities and things-just-above-necessities rather than truly discretionary purchases.
Barbers are going to have a great week in May. Forget all that stuff about how people will be afraid of contact. People are going to want to get rid of the Jesus haircut and women are going to need their roots done.
Gyms will crush it when they reopen. Imagine how many people feel like garbage because they couldn't work out. It's summer. Nobody wants to be fat in summer.
But yeah, if you're selling luxury vehicles, this is a really bad year. If you're a pricey restaurant, you're in a tough spot. If you're selling expensive clothes, you're going to feel a pinch from all of the people pulling back.
My advice so far has been to be careful, but to not become insanely neurotic, and not be paranoid about liability. To survive this, businesses are going to have to accept some risk. He who waits until the risk is all but neutralized will be dead by the time he resumes operations, his market share having been gobbled up the cowboys who leaned into the risk, prudently, earlier. (This might be why people ask me if I'm providing legal or business advice. The latter. The former, telling people all the reasons they can't do something rather than finding solutions, is a waste of money.*)
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* Biggest possible landmine for businesses is that ludicrous leave bill. Every small to mid sized business is requesting the DOL waiver, or hiring back the childless first to avoid the risk. The bill harms workers.
