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[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I saw huge lines of cars at Starbucks for the first time in weeks. At a meeting earlier today (distanced), all people could talk about was how there's finally "a plan." Gov. Wolf might be toppled in a coup if he tries to push a lock down beyond mid May.

The desire to resume life is overwhelming, and people are seeing green shoots. As I noted earlier, while some will be scared silly, neuroses tends to go along with intelligence, and it is not the default setting for the average American. You and I may think they're nuts. But what we think doesn't matter much.

There will be a surge in activity in the first two weeks of May. But it will be limited by two things: (1) People with fewer dollars after having been laid off; and, (2) Emphasis on necessities and things-just-above-necessities rather than truly discretionary purchases.

Barbers are going to have a great week in May. Forget all that stuff about how people will be afraid of contact. People are going to want to get rid of the Jesus haircut and women are going to need their roots done.

Gyms will crush it when they reopen. Imagine how many people feel like garbage because they couldn't work out. It's summer. Nobody wants to be fat in summer.

But yeah, if you're selling luxury vehicles, this is a really bad year. If you're a pricey restaurant, you're in a tough spot. If you're selling expensive clothes, you're going to feel a pinch from all of the people pulling back.

My advice so far has been to be careful, but to not become insanely neurotic, and not be paranoid about liability. To survive this, businesses are going to have to accept some risk. He who waits until the risk is all but neutralized will be dead by the time he resumes operations, his market share having been gobbled up the cowboys who leaned into the risk, prudently, earlier. (This might be why people ask me if I'm providing legal or business advice. The latter. The former, telling people all the reasons they can't do something rather than finding solutions, is a waste of money.*)

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* Biggest possible landmine for businesses is that ludicrous leave bill. Every small to mid sized business is requesting the DOL waiver, or hiring back the childless first to avoid the risk. The bill harms workers.

If everyone tries to resume their normal life in the first two weeks of May, there are going to be a lot of people dying in June. You can ignore what I was just trying to say about testing, but most people don't want to die.

eta: There's a lot of wishful thinking and denial out there, and when government decides it's going to tell people what they want to hear instead of what they need to hear, you get this.