Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield
Things are going forward. The economy seems to have split into two camps:
1. People in Soft Professions w/o Easily Measurable Metrics, or Safe Jobs
Teachers, people who work for well-endowed colleges, government admin deemed essential, those working for massive corporations largely immune to the downturn (insurers, some banks, online sellers of necessities, some lawyers, CPAs).
These people are, predictably, totally okay with prolonged isolation. They're safe, so a stagnant economy is actually in their best interests. It limits virus spread and provides the best chance for them to be able to wait it out until there's a treatment or a vaccine.
2. People Whose Performance Can be Measured, or Who Will Go Under if They Don't Work
This would be the working poor (the people we're calling "heroes" while still paying them shit wages), doctors providing non-essential services, dentists, chiropractors, small retailers, car dealers, mechanics, real estate agents, contractors, salespeople who do not work exclusively by phone.
These people are moving forward because they have no choice but to move forward. They aren't safe and they can't work from home. These are the people you're seeing on the highway, on the city buses, taking the subway.
. . .
Things are moving forward. For half the country. They are adapting and taking risks out of necessity. The other half is hunkering down and hoping to economically survive.
The Moore's Law-like replacement of labor with tech is accelerated in moments like these. Right now, some creeps at McKinsey are finding ways to replace a shit ton of the hunkering down workers (the sticky ones in middle management who make themselves difficult to remove) with technology to pare costs to replace profits lost as a result of this downturn. (The data coming out of this are going to be amazingly useful. Real life experiments impossible to have modeled.) The insurance adjuster, college administrator, or HR specialist who thinks he or she is safe may be in for a surprise, while the podiatrist who's suffering through the new PPE requirements and wondering how he'll survive is actually the safe man over the long term.
If people were investments, you're better long a residential HVAC installer or roofer than a corporate coach or wealth advisor.
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