Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower
This is good advice in that Sebastian has been selfless long enough, and it is time for him to start acting selfishly or even self-indulgently. One problem I see: his plan is based on his prediction about the future personal financial implications of voting for one candidate versus the other and, to date, his factual predictions about future events have been 100% wrong 100% of the time. So what should he do? Vote against his predicted personal financial interests on the assumption he will be wrong again? What if this ends up being the one prediction he makes that is actually right?
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Trump has been very good on the financial side. The tax decreases have far exceeded what I thought they would be. And the market has done well. I worried that it would crater if he were elected.
Will things improve if Biden gets elected? I don't know. He can't raise taxes too much because that would pare economic gains he'll need. He can raise them a bit on corporations, and this would have a negative impact on the market. But I'm not sure it'd have a tremendous negative impact on the actual economy (corporations don't pay taxes anyway). I also think people would be bullish on normalization of global trade under Biden.
Will things improve if Trump gets elected again? The market could fly in anticipation of business friendly policies and sustained low taxes. But I could also see it flattening or falling based on the realization global trade will be fucked for a long time if Trump has four more years in which to engage in trade wars. There's also the enhanced volatility you get with Trump. There could be crazy riots in the streets and possible war as a result of some action like the Soleimani assassination. Trump makes it very hard to predict even the near term, let alone the long term.
