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Originally Posted by Did you just call me Coltrane?
I've heard some discussion that the pollsters have corrected for this, and may have actually over-corrected for it.
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If that's the case, she'll beat Trump. But using Hank's favorite data, the RCP average (which is IMO the most accurate), Trump has retained this thin but durable lead in PA all along.
Baffling, because Joe was quite popular in PA. He was up 4+ points against Trump at this time in 2020. Idk how he lost that advantage, or if the loss of it as stated by polls was even accurate.
What polls don't take into account, however, is comparison of ground games. Harris' organization is far stronger than Trump's. And it is not at all trafficking in conspiracy theory to assert that nursing homes and elderly communities will be some of the most important precincts in PA. They are ancient, often credulous, and susceptible to the work of "bundlers," who nudge groups to mail-in vote for their candidate. The D and R foot soldiers bending Great Aunt Mae and Uncle Bert to vote in one direction during bingo at the adult day care facility may be the deciding factor. And in that game, Ds have a huge advantage. Philly will also have outrageous % turnout in deep blue districts, as will deep red precincts in suburban and rural precincts.
That PA may decide any election is perfect. An election no one wanted, with a pair of incompetent candidates, decided by a low information commonwealth filled with crooked county-level political machines.
