Quote:
Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield
If that's the case, she'll beat Trump. But using Hank's favorite data, the RCP average (which is IMO the most accurate), Trump has retained this thin but durable lead in PA all along.
Baffling, because Joe was quite popular in PA. He was up 4+ points against Trump at this time in 2020. Idk how he lost that advantage, or if the loss of it as stated by polls was even accurate.
What polls don't take into account, however, is comparison of ground games. Harris' organization is far stronger than Trump's. And it is not at all trafficking in conspiracy theory to assert that nursing homes and elderly communities will be some of the most important precincts in PA. They are ancient, often credulous, and susceptible to the work of "bundlers," who nudge groups to mail-in vote for their candidate. The D and R foot soldiers bending Great Aunt Mae and Uncle Bert to vote in one direction during bingo at the adult day care facility may be the deciding factor. And in that game, Ds have a huge advantage. Philly will also have outrageous % turnout in deep blue districts, as will deep red precincts in suburban and rural precincts.
That PA may decide any election is perfect. An election no one wanted, with a pair of incompetent candidates, decided by a low information commonwealth filled with crooked county-level political machines.
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I think the ground game is going to be what wins this thing, and the Rs are in serious trouble in money, organization, and well, their candidate.
In 2020 in Texas, the Ds stayed home and called and texted for fear of Covid. The Rs were knocking on every fucking door they could. Biden lost in places he absolutely should not have because of that. It was a lesson we needed to learn, and hopefully we're overcorrecting on that. If there's anything good to come out of Beto running for three straight cycles is we have an outstanding ground game built up now, and a very comprehensive registration drive. Everyone seems to have been reinvigorated by the switch to Harris, and Allred is actually campaigning now. Which is of course hampered by our own government trying to do everything it can to prevent people from voting. I have no illusions that Harris will win Texas, but maybe Allred will beat Cruz, with the high profile endorsements form Texan by way of Wyoming Republicans and, well, everyone hates Ted Cruz.
