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[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick

I am inclined to just go with the Polymarket odds, since they pretty logically price in information that is not considered by the models.

I love me some polling information. Lord help me, I even subscribed to Nate Silver's Substack through the election. But all I can see is that this is going to be a total crapshoot and I fear that not picking Shapiro is going to be the 'If only Hillary had gone to Wisconsin' of 2024.

I'm used to being a small minority of my political coalition. I mean, once I became disillusioned with the grifting of the social conservative set I am basically have libertarian sympathies, but on foreign policy am a neocon on the scale of the most exaggerated caricature of Dick Cheney imaginable.

Now Dick and I are both Team Blue! TBH, I figure that I can personally have the greatest impact by giving my GOP acquaintances a permission structure to vote for Colin Allred. (or at least them sitting out because literally everyone hates Cruz)

I think that any pollster with an interest in a gambling company probably has some conflict of interest issues to work through. My impression with Silver these days is that he's not just the owner, he's a customer.