Quote:
Originally posted by soup sandwich
Considering that a few plays later Philly was facing a 4th and 26, I'd consider Green Bay's punt on 4th and 1 an excellent call.
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It's not an excellent call. It's a terrible call, because had they gone for it, they only needed 2 feet to win the game. (Eagles were down to 1 time out), fresh set of downs after the 2 minute warning = game over). And if they miss, then the Eagles are only 20 yards closer to the tying field goal than they'd have otherwise been.
Here's my model:
Going for it scenario:
1) Packers make first down and get sure win 70% of the time. I think this is too low, but I'll use it. Actually I'd put the number closer to 80%.
2) 30% of the time, Eagles get ball back at 41 yard line with 1:50 left and 1 time-out, probably results in turning over on downs about 45% of that time, a tie game about 1/2 the time, and Eagles win in regulation 5% of the time (I'll give credit to Andy Reid and ignore the scenario dumb coaches often face where Eagles kick the FG too early, and GB comes back and wins in regulation).
3) Overtime: Let's posit that the Eagles have a 55% chance to win in OT (home field, momentum).
Packers' chance of victory in Going For It: 70%(immediate win) + 30%*45%=13.5%(Don't make first down, Eagles turn ball over on downs) + 30%*50%*45%=(Packers win in OT)=6.75%. Add up those scenarios, Packers win a little over 90% of the time by going for it.
Whereas punting away, let's say Eagles' chances of kicking the tying field goal are now reduced to 30% because of the 20 extra yards they need (20 yards they got in the very first play after the punt, mind you), and winning in regulation is reduced to 2%, and Eagles still have a 55% chance of winning in OT.
Packers chance of victory by Playing Chicken: 68%(win in regulation)+30%*45%=13.5% = 81.5% of Packers' winning.
So given these numbers, which I think are actually unfair against me, it's a 9% better decision to go for it on 4th and less-than-1.
