Quote:
Originally posted by bilmore
All true, but . .. California?
This is like quibbling over whether David Duke is polling at 48% or 49% amongst Black Muslims.
|
And Dukakis was leading at this time in the polls. And Dean was way in front in Iowa last month.
Polls serve a lot of purposes, but predicting outcome ten months in advance is not one of them.
Expect to see Bush's numbers rise during the nastiness among the Dems that is about to happen. He gets to look Presidential for a few months while they squabble. Then as the Dems message coalesces and sharpens, expect to see a fall. If Bush's numbers begin rising right after the Democratic convention and stay up, he wins. If he struggles to get them back up after the Democratic convention, we've got a fight on our hands.
At this stage, the cross-tabs are more interesting than the bottom line numbers, and you have to pay to get all the good cross tabs. If you tell me the hispanic vote is greatly moved by his immigration position, that is interesting because it gives him a campaign theme that, if it resonates, will get him votes in California and Florida that otherwise might not be his.
