Quote:
Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield
That's Pittsburgh.
I'd say the Trump base that is focused on economic issues is constantly turning. They're seeking a magic ticket, and when they don't see it materializing, they pull the other lever. (How else does one vote for Obama, then Trump?)
They believe the President and Congress control the economy. When they don't "get them jobs back," they attribute it primarily to policy decisions.
And the Trump base is too small to lose any sub-group and remain effective at the ballot box.
Trump will always have his base in hopeless places like Missouri, or the bowels of Ohio. Those dead enders are true believers, thick with the Jesus, high on revisionist history of lost white 'Mericana.
But Pennsylvania is not ideological. It's got no real personality, no real ethos. It's sole resources have been fossil fuels and cynical pragmatism. They aren't about improving, just surviving.
Democrats and Republicans in PA have traditionally been in the Party of Me. They're interested solely in power, because in a state with next to zero economic growth, filled with geriatrics, govt money is often the only money. (Because it's Commonwealth, PA is actually dozens of mini states at the county level, run mostly by a mix of incompetents and opportunists.) PA will flip blue in a huge way in the midterms. But then, when the Democrats don't deliver any more than Trump did (as they'll be gridlocked), don't be surprised if PA flips red again in 2020.
These back-and-forths are the death rattle of low information voters, and Pennsylvania is filled with them. I think they'll keep voting against the incumbent party that hasn't given them what they want for few more cycles before the realization of the act's futility permeates their skulls.
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Trump ran by turning up the cultural resentment, and departing from Republican policy dogma, which has never been that popular with most Republican voters. In office, he has been exactly as promised on cultural issues, but he has done a 180 on most policy and has let the Republican Congress do what they want: Tax cuts for the rich, cutbacks for healthcare, no infrastructure (but it's always infrastructure week). For many Republican voters, this is not what they voted for. For the ones who just liked the cultural sturm und drang, they're still with him. For the ones who thought he would actually build a wall, protect their benefits, do deals and bring back jobs, he has lost them. Instead, he is cutting tax for companies and the rich, and they don't like it.
