Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

The primary schedule is made for big money campaigns that can time their momentum for February. https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/ccad.phtml

Basically, there is the usual NH/IA/SC/NV stuff followed by an Ultra-super Tuesday in which Texas and California and a bunch of other good size states all go and more than a third of the delegates are chosen and then a compressed cycle with another third chosen in the rest of March. More than 70% by the end of March.

For candidates other than Bernie and Biden, who start with money and enough support to get them in any top tier, that means winnowing the field between now and January. If there are still more than a half-dozen standing in January, beating either of those front runners will be hard because they'll all split the vote fighting for second or third and a chance to go one-on-one in later primaries with the big guys while the big two rack up delegates.

I don't want Bernie and am kind of meh about Biden, so my hope is both of them start looking like yesterday's news by fall. I think that is possible, in which case we have a race. But if those two are still out front in November it is going to be tough for anyone else.

There is another potential odd dynamic - what if we get one or more "favorite son" candidates who say, hey, Texas, or hey, Calfornia, give me your votes and I'll broker the convention. If Beto takes Texas and Harris California, we could have a dynamic we haven't really seen in many decades.

By the way, it's not a bad schedule for a Republican challenging Trump. The SC primary is open, and NH and NV especially are places where an anti-Trump candidate could gather some R support in a primary.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Trump’s stream of crazy is a feature for many of his voters, not a bug. Biden’s not armed with that Teflon.

No one gives a fuck about Trump voters. His stupid junior high bullshit and racism speak to them. It's everyone else (swing voters) and the idiots who threw away their vote last time that matter.

TM

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

No one gives a fuck about Trump voters. His stupid junior high bullshit and racism speak to them. It's everyone else (swing voters) and the idiots who threw away their vote last time that matter.

TM

Depends on whether we get a decent recession. Unknown how many previous economic voters he may have peeled off in last two years. If you’ve benefited from his tax cuts and think a D will fuck up the economy, you might vote for keeping things crazy.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I quite like Gabbard, for obvious reasons.

Because she's Putin's stooge, a DINO agent provocateur, the kind of Democrats who exists to fuck with other Democrats?

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Because she's Putin's stooge, a DINO agent provocateur, the kind of Democrats who exists to fuck with other Democrats?

You dipshits.

Because she’s hot. I know nothing about the woman. It was a joke.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

You dipshits.

Because she’s hot. I know nothing about the woman. It was a joke.

I knew your electoral predictions and preferences were a joke, I just thought the punchline was different.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

You dipshits.

Because she’s hot.

I'm sure she'd be happy to have you join her cult.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I knew your electoral predictions and preferences were a joke, I just thought the punchline was different.

I expect better from you.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

I'm sure she'd be happy to have you join her cult.

Will there be orgies?

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

I find it very aggravating to go to a session where a firm gets updated on employment law and hear people wax nostalgically about the good old days when they didn't need to worry as much about harassment and discrimination.

Fuck you, assholes. If you're nostalgic for that shit, you're part of the problem.

Wait, were we at the same session? I had a guy from the audience wax poetic about the good ole days when he could fire a woman for getting pregnant.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

I think he has come to an understanding and has handled it quite well. I don't think anyone thinks his physical contact was sexual in nature. And he isn't exactly getting #metoo'd. It's fine for women to say that they didn't welcome the physical contact. What's not fine is to act like this disqualifies him for office or puts him anywhere near Trump's category.

TM

He's one of those touchy-feely dudes and he's like that with men and women.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I have some affection for Biden, and I wish that he wouldn't run for President, because it's not going to go well for him.

Pick someone better. I'll wait.

Beto? Beta male would get stomped by Trump.

Pete Buttigieg. While I like him and would vote for him . . . puhleese. He wouldn't get a single vote south of the mason dixon line.

Any woman -- I tried that, I voted that, I contributed to that, so no.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

No one gives a fuck about Trump voters. . . .

TM

If you want to win you had better.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

Pick someone better. I'll wait.

Beto? Beta male would get stomped by Trump.

Pete Buttigieg. While I like him and would vote for him . . . puhleese. He wouldn't get a single vote south of the mason dixon line.

Any woman -- I tried that, I voted that, I contributed to that, so no.

Hmm, think Biden has trouble with this touching stuff going against several female candidates. Not sure he can survive.

And if he does, does he attract the “there the same I’m going 3rd party?” I know that makes no sense but it didn’t in 2016 either. I do hope non voters at least show up.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Hmm, think Biden has trouble with this touching stuff going against several female candidates. Not sure he can survive.

And if he does, do he attract the “there the same I’m going 3rd party?” I know that makes no sense but it didn’t in 2016 either. I do hope non voters at least show up.

Maybe. Or maybe he’s the Joseph Welch moment for #metoo exploiters (as opposed to the legitimate complaints). Or maybe, most likely, this early scandal passes. Given its timing, a serious gamer might guess Biden’s own team soft leaked this to kill it early and test its capacity to damage. (He’s been a known touchy feely sort for a long time.).

Biden doesn’t turn off the potential third party vote. He renders it immaterial. He grabs the quiet union vote that Trump stole in 2016 (unions like builders, even self-professed ones). He wins PA, WI, and MI by huge margin. He might even win OH.

This idiotic primary, however, could cause him to rethink. He’s a good person who’s been through a lot in life. At this age, does he need 13 months of taking darts from idealists in his own party?