Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Take "tax reform." The party position was "ours would be better" not this is the wrong priority and we would do X instead. They need to sell what goverment can do for people again, instead of how they're the smart small government party.

This right here is the winning pivot.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Adder

I don't think it is, but which states do you have in mind?

The ones which we lost that contained fairly dependable Democrat-leaning (suburban and ex-urban) districts that flipped. You know, those districts with blue-collar, white working classes that are afraid they're losing their jobs to foreigners who don't actually know any but are susceptible to this kind of race-baiting bullshit. I'm thinking Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Indiana. You can add Wisconsin and Florida, if you like.

TM

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Trump ran on "Every 'True' American Gets a Pony."

Bernie ran on "Everybody Gets a Pony."

If it gets any simpler than that, it's spoken in grunts and clicks.

Bernie fucking lost.

And Trump's message was (and the Republican message, typically, is always) very simple. Republicans vote: I hate coloreds and/or No taxes. So, neither of those examples work to prove your point.

TM

[Adder]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

The ones which we lost that contained fairly dependable Democrat-leaning (suburban and ex-urban) districts that flipped. You know, those districts with blue-collar, white working classes that are afraid they're losing their jobs to foreigners who don't actually know any but are susceptible to this kind of race-baiting bullshit. I'm thinking Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Indiana. You can add Wisconsin and Florida, if you like.

TM

We aren't winning Florida without strong Latinx support and I'm not sure there's not more fertile ground in California (where 7 Rs hold seats in districts Hillary won), Texas, Arizona and the cities in those states.

Dems cannot win by chasing those blue-collar, white working class votes. They're gone, not least because a Dems can't beat the racism the GOP is willing to throw down.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Adder

We aren't winning Florida without strong Latinx support and I'm not sure there's not more fertile ground in California (where 7 Rs hold seats in districts Hillary won), Texas, Arizona and the cities in those states.

Agree (except for Florida, which Dems should always win). But if you don't think those places are set to vote against Republicans already, you're crazy.

Originally Posted by Adder

Dems cannot win by chasing those blue-collar, white working class votes. They're gone, not least because a Dems can't beat the racism the GOP is willing to throw down.

You actually are insane. All of the states (other than IN and NC, which each went for Obama in 2008) I named voted for a black man in the previous election cycle. If you think they're lost, you shouldn't be listened to when it comes to politics.

TM

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Dems cannot win by chasing those blue-collar, white working class votes. They're gone, not least because a Dems can't beat the racism the GOP is willing to throw down.

Sure they can. Kennedy had those votes. Bill Clinton had those votes.

Dems cannot win by chasing votes of people like us (we're a statistical rounding error, mostly in already blue states) and focusing on narrow issues like the Dreamers.

As you said, Dems need to change the conversation from "We're the smart small govt folks" (which reads as, "we're limousine liberals" to low information [read most] voters, right and left) to "We're the big govt party, because we're tackling big issues that require big govt."

ETA: As TM noted, Obama also had those votes (though I doubt he had the truly bigoted white "they tuk ur jobs" votes Trump brought out of the weeds).

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

Bernie fucking lost.

And Trump's message was (and the Republican message, typically, is always) very simple. Republicans vote: I hate coloreds and/or No taxes. So, neither of those examples work to prove your point.

TM

Trump promised "beautiful" health care, and to bring back manufacturing jobs. He was not the typical Republican. He was dog whistles on one side, and "I'll make everything magically perfect when I'm in office" on the other.

Yeah, Bernie lost, but not because of his message. Because he was an irascible old man who was an admitted socialist. His message, populism, is still the soup de jour.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Stay classy, Republicans:

The day after President Donald Trump fired James Comey, he became so furious watching television footage of the ousted FBI director boarding a government-funded plane from Los Angeles back to Washington, D.C. that he called the bureau’s acting director, Andrew McCabe, to vent, according to multiple people familiar with the phone call.

Trump demanded to know why Comey was allowed to fly on an FBI plane after he had been fired, these people said. McCabe told the president he hadn’t been asked to authorize Comey’s flight, but if anyone had asked, he would have approved it, three people familiar with the call recounted to NBC News.

The president was silent for a moment and then turned on McCabe, suggesting he ask his wife how it feels to be a loser — an apparent reference to a failed campaign for state office in Virginia that McCabe’s wife made in 2015.

McCabe replied: “OK, sir.” Trump then hung up the phone.

NBC

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Trump promised "beautiful" health care, and to bring back manufacturing jobs. He was not the typical Republican. He was dog whistles on one side, and "I'll make everything magically perfect when I'm in office" on the other.

We disagree on why Trump won. I think he won (i) because Comey said there were more emails a week before the election and (ii) because of Trump's racism (and sexism). Yes, in some of the states I listed, there were people who actually thought he cared about them. But I think in most cases, the vote cast was, "He cares about me because he clearly hates people who don't look like me. I'm getting my country back."

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Yeah, Bernie lost, but not because of his message. Because he was an irascible old man who was an admitted socialist. His message, populism, is still the soup de jour.

Clinton's populist message was lost because it was more complicated than Bernie's ("Free everything!") and Trump's (see above). But I can't have a conversation again in which people tell me that coal miners are too dimwitted to care about coal being a dying industry and voting for a guy who thinks they actually clean coal to produce "clean" coal, who says he's going to bring the industry back, over a candidate who wants to actually invest in the future of those communities. If Trump's message wins every time in that scenario, like I said, there's no message that will reach those people other than "We will prop up the coal industry." And no Democrat can send that message and be a viable Democratic candidate.

TM

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Stay classy, Republicans:

NBC

JFC. Rosenstein has his shit packed up in a box sitting on his desk, I'm assuming?

This country is fucked.

TM

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

We disagree on why Trump won. I think he won (i) because Comey said there were more emails a week before the election and (ii) because of Trump's racism (and sexism). Yes, in some of the states I listed, there were people who actually thought he cared about them. But I think in most cases, the vote cast was, "He cares about me because he clearly hates people who don't look like me. I'm getting my country back."

Clinton's populist message was lost because it was more complicated than Bernie's ("Free everything!") and Trump's (see above). But I can't have a conversation again in which people tell me that coal miners are too dimwitted to care about coal being a dying industry and voting for a guy who thinks they actually clean coal to produce "clean" coal, who says he's going to bring the industry back over someone who wants to actually invest in the future of their communities. If Trump's message wins every time in that scenario, like I said, there's no message that will reach those people other than "We will prop up the coal industry." And no Democrat can send that message and by a viable candidate.

TM

We agree on Comey being a huge part of Trump's win. Sans that epic gaffe, Hillary is President. I also think racism and xenophobia were a huge part of it. That got Trump the aggregate vote in places like FL. I just think Bernie put him over the top in the Rust Belt.

But it was a perfect storm. W/O any one of these things, Hillary wins.

On your last point, you may be right. Evidence supports you over me right now. But we need a national rethinking of a lot of things. One of them is whether we're going to be more like Europe, or continue to be a technically dynamic, but brutal, and increasingly oligarchy and criminal, society. Maybe the Dems need to take that message to the streets? Perhaps the answer is to offer the heresy, "Big Gov Now"? It is a simple message.

By the way, coal miners don't want retraining. They want to live as they have. They're unrealistic, deluded. Investing in their communities is a waste. Just give them a more robust safety net. Save the education for their kids, who might wise up and have the good sense to get the fuck out of places like WV.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

This country is fucked.

If the Democrats take back the House in November, a lot of things will change.

eta: This seems like a really important question: Suppose that Mueller gets fired before November, and/or the investigation is ended by someone senior to him. The Democrats then retake Congress. Can congressional subpoenas obtain the fruits of Mueller's investigations, or can someone at DOJ keep the lid on? It feels to me like that is the constitutional crisis we are heading for, after the one where Mueller gets canned and a GOP Congress doesn't do anything about it.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

If the Democrats take back the House in November, a lot of things will change.

I am with you. I'm wondering what happens to the evidence Mueller has compiled (I know some of it is being shared with state attorneys general) if he gets fired over the next few months and Trump's hand-picked FBI director takes over.

Also, Hillary better lawyer up for the inevitable never-ending bullshit investigation into her vagina. Can't muddy the waters over corruption without an already accepted hated fall "guy."

TM

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Adder

ETA: I'm behind on my TAL, but recently heard a teaser with Minnesota DFL chair saying that the Democrat's brand is shit. While he's not great shakes in my book, he's right. The public has no idea what they stand for, because they don't know what they stand for.

And yes, any one of can rattle off some core values, but what are they trying to accomplish? What's the mission?

Do you realize the percentage of gov employees who vote D? Your #1 core value is you never spite a gov employee. You really don't know this?

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

You actually are insane. All of the states (other than IN and NC, which each went for Obama in 2008) I named voted for a black man in the previous election cycle. If you think they're lost, you shouldn't be listened to when it comes to politics.

TM

Working class voters look a lot different than they used to. We aren't going to win West Virginia, which in my youth was about as reliable a Democratic state as there was. The unions are gone and right wing mega-churches have replaced them. But places like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Still plenty of winning we can do there. North Carolina and Georgia? They're swinging Blue.