Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

This is good news, for sure. Although I think every single point will count when it comes to flipping the Senate, if whoever gets the nomination can crush Trump, I'm happy.

But these are national numbers, I assume. I really need to know how everyone is doing relative to Biden in (i) the states that will matter most (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, etc.) for the electoral and (ii) the states in which Republican Senators are vulnerable.

TM

Another paywalled post from Josh two hours ago, which maybe will persuade you to give him money to read his stuff:

I want to flag your attention to the new Marquette University Law School poll out yesterday. This is the marquee poll in Wisconsin, run by our friend Charles Franklin. The top lines tell a clear story: Biden over Trump by 9 (51-42), Sanders by 4 (48-44), Warren tied (at 45), Harris tied (at 44).

Numbers can change of course. They can also be wrong. Indeed, it was in Wisconsin where Trump exceeded his predicted numbers by the greatest margin. All that said, Wisconsin is the key state in the entire election. As I’ve argued previously, I’m confident that the winner of Wisconsin will be the next President.

The pattern here is what we had been seeing in the national polls: Biden with a substantial lead, Sanders with a narrower lead and the rest roughly tied with Trump. As noted yesterday, while that spread is similar in the latest national polls, all the Democrats now seem to hold significant leads over Trump.

But there’s one particular point I want to focus in on.

Biden’s stronger numbers in general election horse race polls have been open to differing interpretations. One is simply that he’s better known and credentialed by Barack Obama. So name recognition and trust allows a few more millions of voters to opt for him. But presumably that level of familiarity and trust is one less well known Democrats will be able to build up over time.

That theory is certainly right to a degree. The question is how much.

This poll along with other polls has the other, perhaps greater part of the explanation. In a handful of critical Midwestern states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, et al.) he simply runs better against Trump. Why that is we can debate – more ideologically conventional policy positions, Obama, race, gender, Senate experience. But that it is the case doesn’t seem open to much doubt. Those margins in a number of key states are what translates into that relative advantage in the national polls.

Whether this will persist we can’t know. But for now, polls suggest Biden is well positioned to beat Trump in Wisconsin. If he does, if any Democrat does, they are likely the next President.