Objectively intelligent.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

People may be talking about mid-May, but people are also talking about malaria cocktails that cure the disease. There is a lot of wishful thinking out there. We talk to our major corporate partners and our VCs, and planning for months and months is much more prudent if we want to have a company at the end of the year. Other companies will have better and worse odds of riding this out. Our sector is probably more impacted than most. I think it's great that you are putting people on furlough so they don't lose their health insurance. I wish we felt we could do that.

Oh, I don’t disagree with you. I think it’s prudent to assume the worst case scenario. I am merely noting, there is no government intervention which can keep us a functioning society if this thing should go more than two, three months at the most. I think you should build that in as an additional “super worst case scenario.“

We are currently making decisions in part based on consideration of a possible “doomsday situation.” I may not buy a gun, because I have never wanted one in my house, but I may buy a safe.

I know one fairly affluent person who recently avail himself of the right not to pay his mortgage for the next three months. I asked why, given that he can easily afford it. His view was, you can never have too much actual cash on hand, and if things go really badly, why the hell would you want to have wasted that money on your mortgage?

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Oh, I don’t disagree with you. I think it’s prudent to assume the worst case scenario. I am merely noting, there is no government intervention which can keep us a functioning society if this thing should go more than two, three months at the most. I think you should build that in as an additional “super worst case scenario.“

We are currently making decisions in part based on consideration of a possible “doomsday situation.” I may not buy a gun, because I have never wanted one in my house, but I may buy a safe.

I know one fairly affluent person who recently avail himself of the right not to pay his mortgage for the next three months. I asked why, given that he can easily afford it. His view was, you can never have too much actual cash on hand, and if things go really badly, why the hell would you want to have wasted that money on your mortgage?

I thought about this. I wondered if you do this do they shut down all your other credit lines. Then all the other banks follow suit.

I actually also contemplated the converse for a second. What about paying off the house and squatting for a bit only worrying about small tax bill and food.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

I thought about this. I wondered if you do this do they shut down all your other credit lines. Then all the other banks follow suit.

I actually also contemplated the converse for a second. What about paying off the house and squatting for a bit only worrying about small tax bill and food.

The business lines aren’t tied to the home. Different lenders. Always kept them separate for this kind of reason. Also, no personal guarantees of mine for business. And we’re tenancy by entireties state, so we’ve leverage of being judgment proof. No collection ability. And I drew down business lines in early March, when I heard P/E was doing it.

We paid the home mortgage this month too. I don’t want a balloon coming out of this. The SBA PPP line (why not take one... it’s 0% interest forgivable) requires it be used for employees and rent.

I got 6 months of runway, and then shit gets dicey. But as I said, three more months of this and you and I will be kicking ourselves for paying anything on homes that won’t be worth much without gun turrets on the roof. This goes bad a lot faster than anyone thinks. Fed can’t fix this one. No money cannon can do it. It has to be fixed with a coherent plan for incremental re-opening of the economy. This befuddled administration cannot do that. And lunatics saying we need to stay on lockdown until August help nothing.

This can be a V shaped recovery, but there has to be someone in charge, speaking with serious authority. This Fauci/Trump vaudeville routine is going nowhere. Not Fauci’s fault. But you also can’t give the floor over entirely to medical people because, respectfully, half of this is business, and they’re not trained to trade away lives for dollars the we all know we are going to in order to avoid a depression.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Our lines aren’t tied to the home. Different lenders. Always kept them separate for this kind of reason. Also, no personal guarantees of mine for business. And we’re tenancy by entireties state, so we’ve leverage of being judgment proof. No collection ability. And I drew down business lines in early March, when I heard P/E was doing it.

We paid the home mortgage this month too. I don’t want a balloon coming out of this. The SBA PPP line (why not take one... it’s 0% interest forgivable) requires it be used for employees and rent.

I got 6 months of runway, and then shit gets dicey. But as I said, three more months of this and you and I will be kicking ourselves for paying anything on homes that won’t be worth much without gun turrets on the roof. This goes bad a lot faster than anyone thinks. Fed can’t fix this one. No money cannon can do it.

Different lender is one thing but lenders HAVE to be pulling credit reports now. If Bank A sees you asking for a bailout from Bank B I wonder if they reduce that credit line to zero.

I haven't tapped any credit lines yet but I haven't rushed to pay bills early.

The way I look at it is if we turn into The Walking Dead and the money in your account isn't useful, actual cash would be less useful. You never see Carol paying for stuff with fives, do you but last season in, Carol was living in a cute little shack she found.

The only thing is if Elizabeth honey, I have the big one, and the house is paid for, my wife and kid really don't have to worry about anything $ wise for a while. As nice as it sounds to pack up the cash and walk over the border to Canada (I know the hidden spots) there's too much equity in this house to just walk away unless we turn into Venezuela.

And if shit does turn around, I am predicting a fire sale on Manhattan real estate and a mad rush to the burbs so I can be like this guy and ask for $20 million.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

Different lender is one thing but lenders HAVE to be pulling credit reports now. If Bank A sees you asking for a bailout from Bank B I wonder if they reduce that credit line to zero.

I haven't tapped any credit lines yet but I haven't rushed to pay bills early.

The way I look at it is if we turn into The Walking Dead and the money in your account isn't useful, actual cash would be less useful. You never see Carol paying for stuff with fives, do you but last season in, Carol was living in a cute little shack she found.

The only thing is if Elizabeth honey, I have the big one, and the house is paid for, my wife and kid really don't have to worry about anything $ wise for a while. As nice as it sounds to pack up the cash and walk over the border to Canada (I know the hidden spots) there's too much equity in this house to just walk away unless we turn into Venezuela.

And if shit does turn around, I am predicting a fire sale on Manhattan real estate and a mad rush to the burbs so I can be like this guy and ask for $20 million.

Under the policies of my lender, there is no adverse reporting. I could take holiday and be reported as current. YMMV.

I bought in burbs ahead of 2007 and bet on concept the crash would wreck cities in my state. I think I may double my home’s value based oddly what is happening more in NYC. NJ tax refugee flight is only going to accelerate.

I just have to hold on to the damn property now!

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Under the policies of my lender, there is no adverse reporting. I could take holiday and be reported as current. YMMV.

I bought in burbs ahead of 2007 and bet on concept the crash would wreck cities in my state. I think I may double my home’s value based oddly what is happening more in NYC. NJ tax refugee flight is only going to accelerate.

I just have to hold on to the damn property now!

I don't really know what you or Icky are saying, but i took a bat and put nails through it. Is that planning for the future?

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

I don't really know what you or Icky are saying, but i took a bat and put nails through it. Is that planning for the future?

For the near term future, it’s a start.

A friend of mine who’s into guns told me a lot of the handguns are now sold out. He saw people in a store who clearly didn’t know guns asking for anything available. They were buying all kinds of crazy rifles.

So that’s cool. We have loads of people with no gun training learning on the fly with assault weapons.

This is all going to work out, but man is it going to be a freak show of a ride from here to there.

[LessinSF]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

But as I said, three more months of this and you and I will be kicking ourselves for paying anything on homes that won’t be worth much without gun turrets on the roof. This goes bad a lot faster than anyone thinks. Fed can’t fix this one. No money cannon can do it. It has to be fixed with a coherent plan for incremental re-opening of the economy. This befuddled administration cannot do that. And lunatics saying we need to stay on lockdown until August help nothing.

I just don't get the market, unless as you have suggested, it is Wall Street (and Trump, Fox, MSNBC, etc.) propping up equities so that they can get out and leave Main Street holding the bag.

Even with a Mid-May return, that will have been two months of this. Q1 will show a little bit of it, but Q2 is going to be devastating, and this is not going to return to "normal" anytime soon. I don't trust this group, but their study - if true - (after only 3 weeks here in CA and 1 week in most of the country, and 5 more weeks to come) should be fucking frightening to the market, way beyond this mere 20% drop from the tippiest of tops (that many thought was already overbought). This has to be illusory and temporary. http://filesforprogress.org/memos/th...oronavirus.pdf

You call it a money gun, but it is all borrowed/funny money. I may have to wait out Trump trying to have the Fed and Congress do enought to fool the electorate into getting him re-elected, but this shock (and longer term impact) to the economy has to be a chicken that comes home to roost. Too bad so-called capitalists in our government will not let investors in companies that made bad choices fail.