Keeping it civil instead of returning to our dark ways

[SlaveNoMore]

sgtclub
Is it possible that Bush can actually win this? Hank, where are you?

Those numbers just flipped, in a big way.

Did the NAACP lawsuit to keep the polls open in Detroit until midnight succeed?

[Not Me]

1) It looks like Bush increased the percentage of black and hispanic votes that he got in this election compare to the 2000 election.

2) The young crowd (18-21 year olds) did not show up in any greater number in this election than in 2000 despite the concerts.

3) The exit polls were wrong

4) Increased voter turn out did not give the Dems a win.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Those numbers just flipped, in a big way.

Did the NAACP lawsuit to keep the polls open in Detroit until midnight succeed?

One third of Detroit just came in. Two-thirds to follow.

Michigan and Minnesota next states to go blue. Wisconsin unclear without Milwaukee in. Ohio unclear, with Dems getting bigger margins in their base and Rs getting bigger margins in theirs - guess that was why they were trying to create long lines with these challenges.

[Diane_Keaton]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I don't disagree. It just leaves me at a loss for what it means.

I'm not sure what part you are referring to. Example:

Right now, in Arizona, Bush has 55% of the popular vote whereas Kerry has 44%. These percentages were arrived at based on results from precincts in the state that have reported already and in Arizona, 71% of the precincts there have reported. I don't know much about the population in particular counties in Arizona or whether particular counties traditionally run dem or repub. But the stats also show what percent of precincts in each county have reported. So...if we DID have an idea of how populous the counties are (as we do in Florida it seems) and whether they are traditionally dem or not (as some seem to know here for Florida), then wouldn't you say the above stats are somewhat useful in giving somewhat of an idea how the final results could turn out? At least worth a look?

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Diane_Keaton
I'm not sure what part you are referring to. Example:

Right now, in Arizona, Bush has 55% of the popular vote whereas Kerry has 44%. These percentages were arrived at based on results from precincts in the state that have reported already and in Arizona, 71% of the precincts there have reported. I don't know much about the population in particular counties in Arizona or whether particular counties traditionally run dem or repub. But the stats also show what percent of precincts in each county have reported. So...if we DID have an idea of how populous the counties are (as we do in Florida it seems) and whether they are traditionally dem or not (as some seem to know here for Florida), then wouldn't you say the above stats are somewhat useful in giving somewhat of an idea how the final results could turn out? At least worth a look?

I'm thinking that if the precincts that are still out are heavily populated and heavily Democratic -- e.g., the big cities in most states, then they could make a big difference. I'm not complaining about what you're posting, because it's all that's available -- it's just hard to know what it means.

[Diane_Keaton]

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I'm thinking that if the precincts that are still out are heavily populated and heavily Democratic -- e.g., the big cities in most states, then they could make a big difference. I'm not complaining about what you're posting, because it's all that's available -- it's just hard to know what it means.

I gotcha. Yet, if we know a candidate is doing really well, and we also know that, of the counties that usually vote against the candidate, most of the precincts in those counties have already reported, then that says something about the chances the candidate won't be hurt too much further while the rest of the reporting goes on.

[Not Me]

Originally posted by Diane_Keaton
I gotcha. Yet, if we know a candidate is doing really well, and we also know that, of the counties that usually vote against the candidate, most of the precincts in those counties have already reported, then that says something about the chances the candidate won't be hurt too much further while the rest of the reporting goes on.

Its all about Ohio, and in particular, Franklin and Hamilton counties.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
One third of Detroit just came in. Two-thirds to follow.

Don't know where you got that, but if more of Detroit is already in Kerry's in trouble. I really think Michigan might end up very close. The Western part is the anti-Detroit as to voting percentages. We will see.

[sgtclub]

Barone is talking about Ohio now and saying that both candidates have large resevoirs left to be counted.

[Not Me]

Originally posted by sgtclub
Barone is talking about Ohio now and saying that both candidates have large resevoirs left to be counted.

Sources inside the Kerry campaign have conceded they lost Florida.

eta - remember when I said hurricanes = Bush win? I was right.

eta - Judy Woodruff looked like she was about to fucking cry when she reported that Kerry has conceded he lost Florida. JFC, could CNN be any more biased???

[SlaveNoMore]

sgtclub
Barone is talking about Ohio now and saying that both candidates have large resevoirs left to be counted.

Susan Estrich is saying Ohio is in the bag. Which means to me that Bush has it.

What about MI and WI and NM?

[Skeks in the city]

Originally posted by Diane_Keaton
I gotcha. Yet, if we know a candidate is doing really well, and we also know that, of the counties that usually vote against the candidate, most of the precincts in those counties have already reported, then that says something about the chances the candidate won't be hurt too much further while the rest of the reporting goes on.

The governor of nevada is predicting nevada will go to Bush.

[SlaveNoMore]

Not Me
Sources inside the Kerry campaign have conceded they lost Florida.

ABC has verified this. Or said it out loud. Or something like that.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Susan Estrich is saying Ohio is in the bag. Which means to me that Bush has it.

What about MI and WI and NM?

Milwaukee just started to come in and WI is now up for the Ds. My read: Florida is red, Minn, Michigan Blue. Wisconsin a very light blue. No idea on NM.

Ohio sounds like it may be days coming in.

[Diane_Keaton]

Originally posted by Not Me
Its all about Ohio, and in particular, Franklin and Hamilton counties.

Well at this point, over 90% of precincts in Franklin County have already reported and even though Kerry is winning in that county by 6 points, Bush is still beating Kerry by 4 points overall in Ohio. Hamilton County is unknown -- it is 50% Kerry; 50% Bush in that county, but only 22% of the precincts in the county have reported.