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11-09-2016, 05:33 PM
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#2101
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Government Yard in Trenchtown
Posts: 20,182
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adder
You're the second person to state this non-sequitur today. Why do you think winning white women suggests that misogyny is not in play?
White women are funny capable of getting on board with misogyny.
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A long time back in this election I said my biggest worry was where the white women were at.
It's a big, big worry. They're in a better place than the white male demographic, but still not a good place.
__________________
A wee dram a day!
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11-09-2016, 05:33 PM
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#2102
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[intentionally omitted]
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: NYC
Posts: 18,597
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LessinSF
I forgot Nate Silver.
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He may have had the worst night of anyone. Why would I ever visit his site again?
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11-09-2016, 05:53 PM
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#2103
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Moderasaurus Rex
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 33,080
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LessinSF
And it wasn't misogyny. 45% of college-educated white women voted for Trump.
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I just talked to a co-worker, a college-educated white woman and a friend, who explained that she couldn't vote for Hillary because she didn't dump Bill after he humiliated her. World leaders wouldn't respect her. What about Trump, I said, he's cheated on every wife and treats women like shit. True, she said, but he's the one doing the cheating, and she wouldn't vote for Melania.
I don't want to argue about what misogyny means, but even if 45% of college-educated white women voted for Trump, that hardly means there isn't a lot of misogyny out there.
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的t was fortunate that so few men acted according to moral principle, because it was so easy to get principles wrong, and a determined person acting on mistaken principles could really do some damage." - Larissa MacFarquhar
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11-09-2016, 05:55 PM
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#2104
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Moderasaurus Rex
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 33,080
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall
He may have had the worst night of anyone. Why would I ever visit his site again?
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I wasn't paying close attention, but I thought he did better than most.
__________________
的t was fortunate that so few men acted according to moral principle, because it was so easy to get principles wrong, and a determined person acting on mistaken principles could really do some damage." - Larissa MacFarquhar
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11-09-2016, 06:09 PM
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#2105
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[intentionally omitted]
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: NYC
Posts: 18,597
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Good news, Sebby
Trump is starting to load up on those smart people you said he'd pick for his cabinet. Let's start with a healthy dose of climate change skepticism for the EPA. Next we'll move to Giuliani as FBI Director and Christie as AG. What should we give Newt? Whatever he wants, I'm sure.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...pa-transition/
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11-09-2016, 06:17 PM
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#2106
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[intentionally omitted]
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: NYC
Posts: 18,597
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I wasn't paying close attention, but I thought he did better than most.
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Uh...not when it came to the Presidency. Up, down, he's winning, she's winning, no he's winning. Granted, I don't think a poll exists off of which he builds his model that was correct, but if that's the case, he's as useless as a Fox flash poll.
TM |
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11-09-2016, 06:21 PM
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#2107
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Moderasaurus Rex
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 33,080
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall
Uh...not when it came to the Presidency. Up, down, he's winning, she's winning, no he's winning. Granted, I don't think a poll exists off of which he builds his model that was correct, but if that's the case, he's as useless as a Fox flash poll.
TM
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The polls were wrong, so his model based on polls was wrong. But he had much higher chances of Trump winning, because (he said) the polls could be wrong in a systemic way. And he was right. Just about everyone else said Trump was less likely to win.
__________________
的t was fortunate that so few men acted according to moral principle, because it was so easy to get principles wrong, and a determined person acting on mistaken principles could really do some damage." - Larissa MacFarquhar
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11-09-2016, 06:29 PM
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#2108
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Proud Holder-Post 200,000
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Corner Office
Posts: 86,148
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
The polls were wrong, so his model based on polls was wrong. But he had much higher chances of Trump winning, because (he said) the polls could be wrong in a systemic way. And he was right. Just about everyone else said Trump was less likely to win.
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Am I on ignore? I've been posting realclearpolitics for weeks saying it was a toss up, and wondering how 538 could have the odds it was saying.
Maybe each poll was wrong but the average was spot on.
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I will not suffer a fool- but I do seem to read a lot of their posts
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11-09-2016, 06:41 PM
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#2109
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Moderasaurus Rex
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 33,080
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski
Am I on ignore? I've been posting realclearpolitics for weeks saying it was a toss up, and wondering how 538 could have the odds it was saying.
Maybe each poll was wrong but the average was spot on.
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In hindsight, there's absolutely no way to tell whether a 50-50 or 67-33 prediction was more accurate. To me, those numbers are just indicators.
__________________
的t was fortunate that so few men acted according to moral principle, because it was so easy to get principles wrong, and a determined person acting on mistaken principles could really do some damage." - Larissa MacFarquhar
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11-09-2016, 06:44 PM
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#2110
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Proud Holder-Post 200,000
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Corner Office
Posts: 86,148
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
In hindsight, there's absolutely no way to tell whether a 50-50 or 67-33 prediction was more accurate. To me, those numbers are just indicators.
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My telling Sebby Pa was a toss up and Hil was one state away from losing was the same as 538 saying "Hil 70%?"
Okay.
RCP was spot on.
__________________
I will not suffer a fool- but I do seem to read a lot of their posts
Last edited by Hank Chinaski; 11-09-2016 at 06:49 PM..
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11-09-2016, 06:52 PM
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#2111
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[intentionally omitted]
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: NYC
Posts: 18,597
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
The polls were wrong, so his model based on polls was wrong. But he had much higher chances of Trump winning, because (he said) the polls could be wrong in a systemic way. And he was right. Just about everyone else said Trump was less likely to win.
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???
I'm not sure why what you're saying doesn't mean he's useless to me. I already said a model built off of faulty polling is useless. What possible difference does it make that he said she had a 72% chance of winning going into Tuesday than if some other poll watcher said she had a 80% chance? Both are useless.
TM |
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11-09-2016, 07:05 PM
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#2112
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Proud Holder-Post 200,000
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Corner Office
Posts: 86,148
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Where is ty@50 when we need him?
__________________
I will not suffer a fool- but I do seem to read a lot of their posts
Last edited by Hank Chinaski; 11-09-2016 at 07:12 PM..
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11-09-2016, 08:12 PM
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#2113
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Moderasaurus Rex
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 33,080
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall
???
I'm not sure why what you're saying doesn't mean he's useless to me. I already said a model built off of faulty polling is useless. What possible difference does it make that he said she had a 72% chance of winning going into Tuesday than if some other poll watcher said she had a 80% chance? Both are useless.
TM
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You said he had the worst night of anyone. He had a better night than just about anyone else who was polling or aggregating polls. Hank says RCP did even better, though.
__________________
的t was fortunate that so few men acted according to moral principle, because it was so easy to get principles wrong, and a determined person acting on mistaken principles could really do some damage." - Larissa MacFarquhar
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11-09-2016, 08:14 PM
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#2114
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Flaired.
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Out with Lumbergh.
Posts: 9,954
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I just talked to a co-worker, a college-educated white woman and a friend, who explained that she couldn't vote for Hillary because she didn't dump Bill after he humiliated her. World leaders wouldn't respect her. What about Trump, I said, he's cheated on every wife and treats women like shit. True, she said, but he's the one doing the cheating, and she wouldn't vote for Melania.
I don't want to argue about what misogyny means, but even if 45% of college-educated white women voted for Trump, that hardly means there isn't a lot of misogyny out there.
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I think Florida's numbers compared to other states are a pretty good illustration that there were large generational divides among white women's votes. I haven't seen a full breakdown and frankly I can't devote any more time today to election post-mortem, but based on numbers coming in last night from Florida, the Boomer college-educated women did not come out for Hillary. I don't know for sure why, but I bet at least some of it comes back to the 1990's (and, even if some of you don't believe in it, woman-on-woman sexism, which has always been a thing).
The big blue map that's been making the rounds with totals from younger voters does give me some hope for the future. And right now that's the best thing I can say*, because otherwise I'm pretty despondent.
* Well, also, selfishly I'm saying "Thank God I live in a fiercely blue city in a fiercely blue state." I'm worried about so many people who are not so fortunate.
__________________
See you later, decorator.
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11-09-2016, 08:30 PM
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#2115
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I am beyond a rank!
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,196
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Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
My first (and probably only) post on this board.
This morning my mother, a lifelong Republican, texted me "I feel like somebody just threw up on me and I can't wash it off for 4 years."
I can't express my feelings any better than that.
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