Towards A Virtual Williamsburg!

[taxwonk]

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch

This is the question I'm trying to get at and that everybody but you ducked — will L look like F? Will G look like M?

I suspect that the age of first marriage will prove to be positively correlated with the number of men in a two-person commitment, and negatively correlated with the number of women. I'm guessing L may be as much as 2 years lower than F, and G will be as many as 6 years higher than M because there is no fertility clock.

I also wonder if the delta of age between marriage partners will be greater in FF and MM marriages, or smaller. I don't have a prediction on that, but it will be interesting to see whether same-sex marriages prove to be sociologically different from MF marriages.

Fess up. What you're trying to do is handicap your odds of winding up a trophy wife when Mrs. Grinch finally smartens up.

[Atticus Grinch]

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch

I think that, even after the "pent-up demand" thing fades and the situation normalizes, L and G will still be a bit higher than M and F. Generally, I think it still takes some time before people realize or acknowledge or accept that they are gay, and then they have to adjust to that before they end up wanting to marry.

That's a potential upward pressure, but I wonder whether the infamous romanticism of the 18-year-old girl will be a downward pressure on L even if the question of sexual orientation is in flux. Time will tell, I suppose.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch

I think that, even after the "pent-up demand" thing fades and the situation normalizes, L and G will still be a bit higher than M and F. Generally, I think it still takes some time before people realize or acknowledge or accept that they are gay, and then they have to adjust to that before they end up wanting to marry.

You've got a point. Structural challenges will keep the very young end of the spectrum from getting hitched. Teh gays will likely at least have to turn 18 and move out of the parents' house.

And I suppose there won't be any shotgun encouraging early marriages either.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch

This is the question I'm trying to get at and that everybody but you ducked — will L look like F? Will G look like M?

I suspect that the age of first marriage will prove to be positively correlated with the number of men in a two-person commitment, and negatively correlated with the number of women. I'm guessing L may be as much as 2 years lower than F, and G will be as many as 6 years higher than M because there is no fertility clock.

I think those are valid questions, I just don't know if your (and my) instinct on them are just stereotypes and/or stereotypes grounded in real trends.

I do know that I know some lesbians who would joke that their community is going to start getting married at the drop of a hat.

Naturally, I would not do so as that would be in poor taste.

I also wonder if the delta of age between marriage partners will be greater in FF and MM marriages, or smaller. I don't have a prediction on that, but it will be interesting to see whether same-sex marriages prove to be sociologically different from MF marriages.

I would think it would have to be greater. The pool of potential partners is so much smaller it has to be a lot harder to find same age partners. Also, to play off what Sidd said, partnering is also less likely to happen in high school, thus being more likely to happy in a more age-diverse environment.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by taxwonk

Fess up. What you're trying to do is handicap your odds of winding up a trophy wife when Mrs. Grinch finally smartens up.

I believe you mean "another trophy wife," no?

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by taxwonk

Fess up. What you're trying to do is handicap your odds of winding up a trophy wife when Mrs. Grinch finally smartens up.

Well, see, maybe he's really thinking about getting himself a trophy husband instead of a trophy wife, and thus wondering if there will be the same Sept./March opportunities in Gayland as there are in Straightsville.

Don't worry, Atticus. Mid-Life crises and daddy-complexes are universals, gay or straight.

[Sidd Finch]

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch

That's a potential upward pressure, but I wonder whether the infamous romanticism of the 18-year-old girl will be a downward pressure on L even if the question of sexual orientation is in flux. Time will tell, I suppose.

Sorry, thinking about 18-year old lesbians. Were we discussing something?

[Sidd Finch]

Originally Posted by Adder

You've got a point. Structural challenges will keep the very young end of the spectrum from getting hitched. Teh gays will likely at least have to turn 18 and move out of the parents' house.

And I suppose there won't be any shotgun encouraging early marriages either.

Your last point is the "doh!" moment for me. Of course -- that's a major downward pressure on marriage ages, isn't it? Not an issue for gay marriages.

A similar but different point: gay people are less likely to be from religions that encourage early marriage either directly (getting married early to start a family is good) or indirectly (I really want to get married soon so I can finally have sex without getting sent to Hell).

[Sidd Finch]

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch

That's a potential upward pressure, but I wonder whether the infamous romanticism of the 18-year-old girl will be a downward pressure on L even if the question of sexual orientation is in flux. Time will tell, I suppose.

Do you think that young marriages are caused by the 18-yo girl's romanticism, or by unplanned pregnancy and conservative religion? I think the latter two are far more important. L and G will be higher than F and M for many years to come, probably our entire lifetimes.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch

Your last point is the "doh!" moment for me. Of course -- that's a major downward pressure on marriage ages, isn't it? Not an issue for gay marriages.

A similar but different point: gay people are less likely to be from religions that encourage early marriage either directly (getting married early to start a family is good) or indirectly (I really want to get married soon so I can finally have sex without getting sent to Hell).

Haven't you been listening to Mike Huckabee? Expect a revival of Greek Paganism. There may soon be drunken men in togas on the prowl for helpless youngsters ....

Oh wait, that was Huckabee's frat at Christian U.

[Jack Manfred]

From boing boing in convenient .pdf form.

p.s. check out the name of the .pdf.

[Atticus Grinch]

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch

Do you think that young marriages are caused by the 18-yo girl's romanticism, or by unplanned pregnancy and conservative religion? I think the latter two are far more important. L and G will be higher than F and M for many years to come, probably our entire lifetimes.

I look forward to seeing how this plays out. I think there are male and female tendencies that run deeper than religion and culture, and as the population of out gays and lesbians begins breaching the college-educated post-religious world in which we tend to confine our travels, those fundamentals may begin appearing in the data. Usually I'm the one arguing for the influences of culture and religion, so I'm happy either way, right or wrong.

An anecdotal data point: an Episcopal priest FB friend announced her joy at having been approached by two separate couples yesterday with a request that she marry them ASAP. One was from an 18 y.o., though she didn't specify the gender.

[Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)]

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch

You're expecting a decline in both M and F. But what will L and G be? Will they be the same as the heterosexual numbers? The same as each other? You're ducking the issue, you issue-ducker.

Why not ask the question you wanted answered rather than the one you asked and I answered?

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch

Your last point is the "doh!" moment for me. Of course -- that's a major downward pressure on marriage ages, isn't it? Not an issue for gay marriages.

A similar but different point: gay people are less likely to be from religions that encourage early marriage either directly (getting married early to start a family is good) or indirectly (I really want to get married soon so I can finally have sex without getting sent to Hell).

ummm, they could be from those religions. BTW, my marrying dogs post was gold, and I get no love?

[Atticus Grinch]

Originally Posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)

Why not ask the question you wanted answered rather than the one you asked and I answered?

What I asked was:

Give your predictions for L and G, both as a figure and as an expected trend (if any).

What you answered was:

Trend will be down because there is lots of pent up demand marriage for L and G. All those couples waiting 30 years won't have to wait that long in the future.

Which I take to mean you think L and G will start higher than M and F (though you don't expressly say) and then trend lower — but lower than heterosexual marriages, or not? Sidd says "no"; I say "yes" for L and "no" for G, but it's hard to know since you didn't predict figures as requested.