Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

They're increasing the ask on immigration daily. They want to end the diversity lottery, the system in place for almost three decades to lessen the bias of the system toward Western Europeans.

This is backward. It's there to allow more Western Europeans.

Chuck's job is to hold the caucus together to oppose that catastrophe, and that is likely going to be a very tough job.

God forbid he accomplish progress instead.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Adder

This is backward. It's there to allow more Western Europeans.

As always, it's complicated. Initially, the diversity visa program had a massive Irish bias thanks to some quick work by old Boston chum Brian Donnelly. But it's original design, other than the Donnelly gimmick, brought in a whole lot of South Asians, and you'll find a lot of Indian and Pakistani immigrants of about our vintage who benefited. Then the bias got push back toward Western Europe before swinging back again, so now it really does encourage diversity. Here are the current stats, which you'll see are very Africa heavy - and ineligible countries now for Diversity Visas include both the UK and India: https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...-entrants.html

But, overall, despite some periods like the Irish one, it's encouraged diversity in immigration.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I don't think Schumer could have gotten more than he did this time.

I'm not even sure I disagree with that, but I think you need more than 48 hours to find out. And I think caving 48 hours in is not playing your hand well, especially when the news out of the White House is all over the place.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

If you're Schumer, now you don't tie DACA to lifting another shutdown. You just insist on the vote McConnell already said he'd give to the issue.

Which (a) will not get you a passed Dream Act, and (b) does absolutely nothing for you politically.

"We stood up for the Dreamers by getting a vote on a Act that we couldn't support or get passed" is not exactly going to drive people to the polls.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Are arranged marriages illegitimate? Does it matter whether you come out of a culture where it is common?

My grandfather died in WWI. My grandmother had two kids under the age of five and a farm to run, and married a guy she didn't really love out of desperation. She never really hid that fact. Legit marriage?

Who are any of us to question why someone else gets married?

I’d say an arranged marriage is legit unless one of the parties says they wish to disavow it.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

They believe screaming "illegals" and making racially tinged comments about the Dreamers wins it for them. If you read the poll questions on "illegal immigrants" or "Haitian or African illegals" rather than the poll questions on "Dreamers" the Republicans see it as playing to their base in places like white Pennsylvania.

They’re going to get killed playing to the base. State elections in PA last year were as blue as it gets.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

They’re going to get killed playing to the base. State elections in PA last year were as blue as it gets.

Don't disagree, but also: playing to your base can work if your base is fired up and the other side's base isn't. Republicans are not especially fired up right now and Democrats are.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Don't disagree, but also: playing to your base can work if your base is fired up and the other side's base isn't. Republicans are not especially fired up right now and Democrats are.

Expect the Rs to work hard to fire up their base between now and then. Putin will lend a hand, too.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Adder

Which (a) will not get you a passed Dream Act, and (b) does absolutely nothing for you politically.

"We stood up for the Dreamers by getting a vote on a Act that we couldn't support or get passed" is not exactly going to drive people to the polls.

Schumer also hasn't solved North Korea's nuclear threat, which is not going to drive people to the polls, but before you criticize him for that, understand that there are real limits on his leverage there as well.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Adder

I'm not even sure I disagree with that, but I think you need more than 48 hours to find out. And I think caving 48 hours in is not playing your hand well, especially when the news out of the White House is all over the place.

The more Democrats continue and escalate a confrontation over DACA, e.g., by dragging out the shutdown, the harder it becomes for Republicans to vote for the Dream Act. In other words, every day that Schumer let things drag on was making it less likely that he'd save the Dreamers.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Expect the Rs to work hard to fire up their base between now and then. Putin will lend a hand, too.

They'll do their best. In California, the Republicans are trying to save their congressional seats with a referendum aimed at the state's gas tax. I just think it's going to be a tougher sell this year than most.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

The more Democrats continue and escalate a confrontation over DACA, e.g., by dragging out the shutdown, the harder it becomes for Republicans to vote for the Dream Act. In other words, every day that Schumer let things drag on was making it less likely that he'd save the Dreamers.

I don't think this is right at all.

The idea of a clean vote on DACA is a fantasy - the Rs have hostages, they need to get something in return for their release. The question is what. They've now asked for the moon. It may take a while where they keep shooting for the moon for them to realize they can't get it, and it may just be a process of grinding down the demands and meeting in the middle. That takes time.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

I don't think this is right at all.

The idea of a clean vote on DACA is a fantasy - the Rs have hostages, they need to get something in return for their release. The question is what. They've now asked for the moon. It may take a while where they keep shooting for the moon for them to realize they can't get it, and it may just be a process of grinding down the demands and meeting in the middle. That takes time.

You are assuming that Republicans care in the end about policy outcomes and that their posturing is a tactic, and that they don't care about what happens to the hostages, whom they will be happy to release once they get whatever else it is they want. Unfortunately, I think that's mostly wrong. To the extent that Republicans care about policy outcomes here, they are invested in screwing Dreamers as an end in itself, but the bigger problem is that they are driven by posturing and a need to stick it to Democrats and establish dominance. The policy goals shift to fulfill these impulses. The more that Democrats focus on saving the Dreamers, the more Republicans will be compelled to stick it to them (the Dreamers and the Democrats, whom they will lump together as unAmerican). As the temperature rises, those Republicans who don't feel this will be impelled to go along by same logic of party solidarity which drove them to vote for Trump after initially opposing him.

Conservatives are reactionary. Trump said he wanted a bipartisan deal to keep the government open, but he didn't really mean it. As we saw, what he really wanted was a fight with Democrats over whether immigrants are Americans.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

You are assuming that Republicans care in the end about policy outcomes and that their posturing is a tactic, and that they don't care about what happens to the hostages, whom they will be happy to release once they get whatever else it is they want. Unfortunately, I think that's mostly wrong. To the extent that Republicans care about policy outcomes here, they are invested in screwing Dreamers as an end in itself, but the bigger problem is that they are driven by posturing and a need to stick it to Democrats and establish dominance. The policy goals shift to fulfill these impulses. The more that Democrats focus on saving the Dreamers, the more Republicans will be compelled to stick it to them (the Dreamers and the Democrats, whom they will lump together as unAmerican). As the temperature rises, those Republicans who don't feel this will be impelled to go along by same logic of party solidarity which drove them to vote for Trump after initially opposing him.

Conservatives are reactionary. Trump said he wanted a bipartisan deal to keep the government open, but he didn't really mean it. As we saw, what he really wanted was a fight with Democrats over whether immigrants are Americans.

Wow, good points.

You know what we could really use, though. This. More of this.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Ten years ago, Barack Obama had not upset Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary yet.