I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

Yes and no. The markets like stability. The markets will plummet if Trump wins. And they will surely fluctuate wildly during a Trump Presidency. Hell, I don't know where the fuck I'd put my money to keep it safe from that jackass. Under my mattress?

TM

I don't think this would be true over the long term. First, should he become a serious contender, the markets will more aggressively price in his potential impact.

Anything can be priced in today. Everybody was flipping out about Brexit. It came, it went, all losses erased within five days. Trump would be more substantial, but after a few weeks of wild swings, things would normalize, the silver linings would be found, people would recall it's all a Fed policy driven joke anyway, and it'd continue its upward march.

The more crazy things happen with regularity, the less their impact.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by taxwonk

The housing bubble was a bad idea. The equivalent of using the G's Master Card to buy a war was a worse idea and a bigger factor. The housing bubble could have been staved off sooner and to a greater degree if he hadn't already blown his wad on avenging Dad.

Yes, Iraq was the single worst blunder, economically, in terms of foreign policy, and in every other conceivable regard. But I was just talking about tinkering with the domestic economy. Bush's signature move there was the "everybody gets a home" plan -- an obvious bubble creation machine if there ever was one.

I can't find a quote, but I recall a famous economist stating the bubble of last resort - something you see in every failing state - is a series of residential property bubbles.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I don't think this would be true over the long term. First, should he become a serious contender, the markets will more aggressively price in his potential impact.

Anything can be priced in today. Everybody was flipping out about Brexit. It came, it went, all losses erased within five days. Trump would be more substantial, but after a few weeks of wild swings, things would normalize, the silver linings would be found, people would recall it's all a Fed policy driven joke anyway, and it'd continue its upward march.

The more crazy things happen with regularity, the less their impact.

You keep repeating this. It makes no sense. The market cannot account for a lunatic in the most powerful office in the world. Offending Putin into war, tossing out trade agreements at a whim, attacking an ally because they tweeted criticism--we can't even think of all of the things that psycho could affect if he were to hold office. I think you think he will act in a sane way (or will be controlled--by who, I have no clue) if he were to win. But your wishful thinking does not make it so.

TM

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

"Every American should own a home..." Remember that? His "ownership society," or some crap like that?

Okay, but what did he actually do, other than express that sentiment? If I recall, Freddie and Fannie expanded their less than prime programs, but I don't think it was at W's direction (because I don't think he could direct it).

I'm also not sure it was a bad thing until the banks took it a lot farther. Although I guess you could say he failed to regulate the risks those banks were taking.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

You keep repeating this. It makes no sense. The market account for a lunatic in the most powerful office in the world. Offending Putin into war, tossing out trade agreements at a whim, attacking an ally because they tweeted criticism--we can't even think of all of the things that psycho could affect if he were to hold office. I think you think he will act in a sane way (or will be controlled--by who, I have no clue) if he were to win. But your wishful thinking does not make it so.

TM

Britain left the EU - a huge event. The market dropped 800 points over a couple days and was back over 18k after a couple more. Putin annexes Crimea. Market shrugs it off. Job reports comes in shockingly low last month? To the market, it's just noise. Etc... Everything is a mere hiccup at worst.

The markets have had a year to watch this clown. Is he volatile? Yes. But is he such a loose cannon he can overcome the checks and balances designed to keep us from electing our own Caligula? No. And the markets wisely understand this. Trump will create turmoil, and the markets will not like it for a time. But much as they've throw a hissy fit at the notion of rate increases, checking Yellen from being more aggressive, the big market participants will demand that the inexorable climb upward be resumed, Trump Presidency be dammed.

I could see Trump as a positive for the market because he'd create enough turmoil to keep rates depressed for an even longer time than they're already likely to be.

Is he the market's preferred winner? Hell no. You're absolutely right they want Hillary. They like calm. But the markets would, in relatively short order, spin a Trump Presidency to their advantage. They will make lemonade from even rotten lemons. The march upward will be resumed. And everyone involved will continue to hate it, predict it will crash, and discuss how things like Trump and Brexit will surely crater it. The participants are so numb (and a lot of them robots) at this point, they'll climb a wall of worry higher than even Trump could build.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Okay, but what did he actually do, other than express that sentiment? If I recall, Freddie and Fannie expanded their less than prime programs, but I don't think it was at W's direction (because I don't think he could direct it).

I'm also not sure it was a bad thing until the banks took it a lot farther. Although I guess you could say he failed to regulate the risks those banks were taking.

He was a cheerleader for it because nothing else was spurring his economy. Recall his early tax rebate that created no activity?

No President ever actually implements his specific plans. He endorses them, or their predicted effects, and creates the atmosphere where the people who do the actual implementation are either mandated to or feel comfortable putting the policies to work.

Yeah, Clinton started the mortgage loan relaxation efforts. But Bush presided over, welcomed, and encouraged their expansion, which conveniently ginned up an otherwise lousy economy.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Britain left the EU - a huge event. The market dropped 800 points over a couple days and was back over 18k after a couple more. Putin annexes Crimea. Market shrugs it off. Job reports comes in shockingly low last month? To the market, it's just noise. Etc... Everything is a mere hiccup at worst.

The markets have had a year to watch this clown. Is he volatile? Yes. But is he such a loose cannon he can overcome the checks and balances designed to keep us from electing our own Caligula? No. And the markets wisely understand this. Trump will create turmoil, and the markets will not like it for a time. But much as they've throw a hissy fit at the notion of rate increases, checking Yellen from being more aggressive, the big market participants will demand that the inexorable climb upward be resumed, Trump Presidency be dammed.

I could see Trump as a positive for the market because he'd create enough turmoil to keep rates depressed for an even longer time than they're already likely to be.

Is he the market's preferred winner? Hell no. You're absolutely right they want Hillary. They like calm. But the markets would, in relatively short order, spin a Trump Presidency to their advantage. They will make lemonade from even rotten lemons. The march upward will be resumed. And everyone involved will continue to hate it, predict it will crash, and discuss how things like Trump and Brexit will surely crater it. The participants are so numb (and a lot of them robots) at this point, they'll climb a wall of worry higher than even Trump could build.

I'm sorry, but this is mostly nonsense based on nothing.

TM

[Pretty Little Flower]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

I'm sorry, but this is mostly nonsense based on nothing.

TM

I don't think you're actually sorry.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower

I don't think you're actually sorry.

I am{sad face}

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

I'm sorry, but this is mostly nonsense based on nothing.

TM

remember, the great depression was just the market pricing in the dust bowl.

no biggie

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower

I don't think you're actually sorry.

What makes you say such a thing?

TM

[SEC_Chick]

Originally Posted by taxwonk

Cruz is Trump with a slightly thicker veneer.

Three hours ago I would have disputed this. After meeting with Trump, Cruz, while not endorsing, has accepted Trump's invitation and agreed to speak at the convention. Unless he's speaking to accept the nomination from freed delegates (and he's not. I am not that delusional) Cruz is all but dead to me. Way to not actually kiss his ring, but still appear to submit, jackass.

On the plus side, I listened in to the Comey hearings today and learned that my Gmail account has way better security that Hillary's email while she was Secretary of State. So double yay for me!

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I don't think this would be true over the long term. First, should he become a serious contender, the markets will more aggressively price in his potential impact.

Anything can be priced in today. Everybody was flipping out about Brexit. It came, it went, all losses erased within five days. Trump would be more substantial, but after a few weeks of wild swings, things would normalize, the silver linings would be found, people would recall it's all a Fed policy driven joke anyway, and it'd continue its upward march.

The more crazy things happen with regularity, the less their impact.

If he becomes president the markets will be more like the deal that Negan and Rick work out in season 7 of TWD.

[SEC_Chick]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

If he becomes president the markets will be more like the deal that Negan and Rick work out in season 7 of TWD.

Half your stuff and you get to live is pretty much the best deal out there right now. Thanks for helping to resolve my issue of who to write in for President.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick

Half your stuff and you get to live is pretty much the best deal out there right now. Thanks for helping to resolve my issue of who to write in for President.

You forget one important aspect of The Art of The Deal: