Objectively intelligent.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

I think helicopter money is coming. Trump's next move will be to try to buy the election by farting out $1000 checks to every American.

It's not a terrible idea. But it's one more genie out of the bottle. One more completely aberrant thing that'll be normalized.

This is what you get when you keep propping up a system that needs to stripped to its bones and overhauled. Our economy is a Potemkin village. We all know it. Pull out FAANGs and buybacks and it's a flat tire.

Everybody, top, middle, bottom, is fragile in this economy. In this political system. And it's not because of Trump. He's a big problem, but one of many. It's because we've insisted on financializing the shit out of the economy, and propping asset prices, and protecting the boomers at all costs. Any shock to the system creates an outsized impact. That's what happens to things that are built on bullshit.

Half of this country cannot find $400 on 24 hours notice. And the other half just saw a third of its assets burned up in a correction. Wait until it drops further... I've been told by some reputable brokers that buy time is 18k.

This mess just blew out the floor for a whole lot of boomers who were barely back on their feet after 2008. Toast.

I don't know where this fucking virus takes us next, but I know it's exposing just how fragile and fucked up we are. How much we insist on living in a world we want to exist rather than the one that does, where we're a quasi-feudal shithole country reputable only to the extent we trade on long passed glory.

If you doubt me, consider this: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...ave-rules.html

[Hank Chinaski]

Anyone watching the Hillary documentary? Last episode she went off on Bernie with stuff I'd never heard- "he was hated by every other senator, couldn't work with anyone, a vain, silly man." I'm paraphrasing, but those thoughts.

And that sucks right now. We ain't going to have primaries anytime soon. We need the "contest" over now, or we risk an election delay making sense, actually making sense.

Bernie needs to bow out now, for the Country. If he does not he should go down in history as the worst fuck in politics right now well second worse.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Anyone watching the Hillary documentary? Last episode she went off on Bernie with stuff I'd never heard- "he was hated by every other senator, couldn't work with anyone, a vain, silly man." I'm paraphrasing, but those thoughts.

And that sucks right now. We ain't going to have primaries anytime soon. We need the "contest" over now, or we risk an election delay making sense, actually making sense.

Bernie needs to bow out now, for the Country. If he does not he should go down in history as the worst fuck in politics right now well second worse.

I agree, but he's not the kind of guy to bow out for anyone's good.

I think she's right about not being able to work with anyone. We have an incredibly liberal congressional delegation, but they all pretty much wrote him off.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The paid leave to stay home because a child's school is closed requirement thrust upon all employers (except for those with over 500 employees because...?) in that bill is dangerous. I don't expect Mnuchin to grasp that, as he's an idiot, but one of Pelosi's people should have.

My wife owns a small business. To be prudent, we'll drain the cash, draw down on the lines a bit and try to stay open as long as responsibly possible. It's HC, so it has to stay open to a certain extent.

A lot of small businesses are not so nimble and don't have a pile of receivables on which to feast during the trough that's coming. By compelling businesses to pay ANY form of mandate they haven't planned for will imperil those businesses' ability to stay current on leases, mortgages, etc. These businesses will be compelled to drain out all of their cash. Nationally, this is a drain on banks' balance sheets at the time they really don't need that sort of thing.

Now, of course, the govt says it will reimburse businesses for these outlays. But that's down the road. The time the businesses need to hold cash to survive is now. Not ten months from now.

And the govt says it will grant exemptions to businesses who will fail if compelled to pay this mandate. That'll take weeks to determine. Many small businesses won't have that kind of time.

There's also the fact that one cannot squeeze blood from a stone. Business owners are simply not going to pay this in many instances as they can't afford it, and the govt will not be able to enforce it. Which comes to my last observation on this bill...

It seems a stealth way of dictating all businesses shut down. No responsible business owner would take the risk of incurring these costs. It's smarter to simply close up shop for a bit and tell your employees to collect unemployment compensation.

I feel terrible for bar and restaurant owners. This situation has got to be insanely scary.

The 500 employee exemption is absurd - those are the businesses that ought to do this first.

I think we ought to have a program of paying all those restaurants for getting food out to every kid on subsidized or free lunches - good way to shore up the business while taking care of an urgent need. Get them all delivered. Sure, it won't help the $30 a plate places, but it could help the places that make their money selling sandwiches for sub-$10.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Anyone watching the Hillary documentary? Last episode she went off on Bernie with stuff I'd never heard- "he was hated by every other senator, couldn't work with anyone, a vain, silly man." I'm paraphrasing, but those thoughts.

And that sucks right now. We ain't going to have primaries anytime soon. We need the "contest" over now, or we risk an election delay making sense, actually making sense.

Bernie needs to bow out now, for the Country. If he does not he should go down in history as the worst fuck in politics right now well second worse.

Very true. As far as the general election, delaying, not so easy to do. Constitution says he's gone 1/20/21 and to change that you need a constitutional convention.

Just using the electoral college to install Trump. Possible.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...kMP66LjAXeeUew

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The paid leave to stay home because a child's school is closed requirement thrust upon all employers (except for those with over 500 employees because...?) in that bill is dangerous. I don't expect Mnuchin to grasp that, as he's an idiot, but one of Pelosi's people should have.

My wife owns a small business. To be prudent, we'll drain the cash, draw down on the lines a bit and try to stay open as long as responsibly possible. It's HC, so it has to stay open to a certain extent.

A lot of small businesses are not so nimble and don't have a pile of receivables on which to feast during the trough that's coming. By compelling businesses to pay ANY form of mandate they haven't planned for will imperil those businesses' ability to stay current on leases, mortgages, etc. These businesses will be compelled to drain out all of their cash. Nationally, this is a drain on banks' balance sheets at the time they really don't need that sort of thing.

Now, of course, the govt says it will reimburse businesses for these outlays. But that's down the road. The time the businesses need to hold cash to survive is now. Not ten months from now.

And the govt says it will grant exemptions to businesses who will fail if compelled to pay this mandate. That'll take weeks to determine. Many small businesses won't have that kind of time.

There's also the fact that one cannot squeeze blood from a stone. Business owners are simply not going to pay this in many instances as they can't afford it, and the govt will not be able to enforce it. Which comes to my last observation on this bill...

It seems a stealth way of dictating all businesses shut down. No responsible business owner would take the risk of incurring these costs. It's smarter to simply close up shop for a bit and tell your employees to collect unemployment compensation.

I feel terrible for bar and restaurant owners. This situation has got to be insanely scary.

I don't disagree with you that there is going to be a lot of economic pain. I said I didn't see how we could avoid a recession weeks ago. We really do need businesses to shut down, if they rely on physical presence. A lot of people are going to die because our hospitals are going to be overwhelmed. If businesses have to close to slow the spread of the disease and save lives, that needs to happen.

I really marvel at how slowly some people seem to be grasping the severity of the situation. Hospitals in California are canceling elective surgeries -- think about why. eta: Seattle is worse. And this is just starting.

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

The 500 employee exemption is absurd - those are the businesses that ought to do this first.

I think we ought to have a program of paying all those restaurants for getting food out to every kid on subsidized or free lunches - good way to shore up the business while taking care of an urgent need. Get them all delivered. Sure, it won't help the $30 a plate places, but it could help the places that make their money selling sandwiches for sub-$10.

In places like LA, where they were mandated shut, they could take what we did in Houston for Harvey and use the food that would otherwise go to waste to distribute. But that required a lot of people in commercial kitchens together. And then setting up a distribution system (Lyft did it for free, Uber refused). We have a blueprint of how to do it in a hurricane situation, but it probably could be adapted. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...bVXsJNbTc/edit

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

In places like LA, where they were mandated shut, they could take what we did in Houston for Harvey and use the food that would otherwise go to waste to distribute. But that required a lot of people in commercial kitchens together. And then setting up a distribution system (Lyft did it for free, Uber refused). We have a blueprint of how to do it in a hurricane situation, but it probably could be adapted. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...bVXsJNbTc/edit

Our school system is offering free bagged breakfast and lunch to anyone 18 y.o. and under from ten local schools. The restaurants in CA aren't ordered closed -- they can do take-out and delivery.

[Replaced_Texan]

Also, everyone check in from time to time. We've been going at this for 20 years now. We've gone through a lot of shit together. Forced isolation will be a little easier knowing we have each other's backs.

Let me know if there's anything I can do to help ya'll out and I'm happy to do so.

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Our school system is offering free bagged breakfast and lunch to anyone 18 y.o. and under from ten local schools. The restaurants in CA aren't ordered closed -- they can do take-out and delivery.

Good to hear. I hope everyone can do so safely.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I said I didn't see how we could avoid a recession weeks ago.

Bingo.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

We are going to need to shut everything down asap to address this thing as needed.

To avoid economic carnage that might ensue, we will need a national moratorium on debt obligations for 60 days.

No mortgage, lease, or other business or consumer debt enforcement.
No assessment of fees, penalties, etc.
No reporting of delinquencies occurring in next 60 days.

I do not trust people to universally do this on their own. There are predators out there already seeking to profit off this. And it does no one any good if creditors en masse will have borrowers over a barrel coming out of this crisis. It does no one any good if half the country's credit becomes fucked, which it will, as paychecks will disappear and defaults on consumer loans will spike.

This can and needs to be done. Because from what I'm seeing, we need to close everything, and do it now, and do it for a period of at least about two weeks.

I proposed this a few days back but didn't see immediate urgency. Given what the Fed did last night, I am now convinced that the people in charge of managing this are actually worsening it. They are looking at it as an economic crisis rather than a health crisis causing economic problems.

In short, they don't seem to have a plan. Nobody with a plan, or any strategy, would repeat an action which had just cratered the market a week prior. It reeks of desperation and inexperience.

Maybe you agree with me that we need a 60 day national forbearance on debts and leases. Or maybe you think I'm nuts. Maybe you think its unconstitutional. And perhaps that's true. Or maybe you think it's impossible, which is not true. But who's going to challenge it? So if you do agree, circulate the idea. Send it to a representative or Senator.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I don't disagree with you that there is going to be a lot of economic pain. I said I didn't see how we could avoid a recession weeks ago. We really do need businesses to shut down, if they rely on physical presence. A lot of people are going to die because our hospitals are going to be overwhelmed. If businesses have to close to slow the spread of the disease and save lives, that needs to happen.

I really marvel at how slowly some people seem to be grasping the severity of the situation. Hospitals in California are canceling elective surgeries -- think about why. eta: Seattle is worse. And this is just starting.

I say this without hint of hyperbole: This is worse than 2008 by many multiples.

2008 could be addressed because it stemmed from one thing: MBS. Fix banking, fix the problem.

This is a health disaster which will metastasize through not only all elements of the economy, but also the social fabric of the country (which is already frayed).

The only way to deal with this is a nuclear option. Forced shutdown of all but essential services.

Now.

And we needn't take that economic pain, which would be distributed unfairly. We needn't say, "Oh well, it's always a bad idea to own an eatery" or "Well, bricks and mortar retail was already fading," or "Find another gym." No. We can and must save those people because It's Not Their Fault.

And the way to do that is to freeze time. Sixty day national forbearance.

(Adder, don't tell me why this is cumbersome, or impossible. It's not. It's totally doable. If we can pass that sick leave bill - which as structured will do very little to help any workers - we can freeze payment obligations for 60 days.)

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

I agree, but he's not the kind of guy to bow out for anyone's good.

I think she's right about not being able to work with anyone. We have an incredibly liberal congressional delegation, but they all pretty much wrote him off.

He wrote himself off. You get nothing done in Congress by being an "independent" and not building relationships in the party.

Which is also a major challenge to getting the party to nominate you for president.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Adder

He wrote himself off. You get nothing done in Congress by being an "independent" and not building relationships in the party.

Which is also a major challenge to getting the party to nominate you for president.

And too fucking stubborn to quit now to save the entire election process.