Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Depends on whether we get a decent recession. Unknown how many previous economic voters he may have peeled off in last two years. If you’ve benefited from his tax cuts and think a D will fuck up the economy, you might vote for keeping things crazy.

No one has benefited from his tax cut that either (i) isn't already voting for him or (ii) isn't completely insignificant, statistically speaking. He has fucked a large percentage of his base with his ridiculous tariffs and his promises to the coal industry have (obviously) proven to be complete bullshit, so even that small sliver of the population knows he's full of shit.

All this asshole has is the 35-40% of idiot/racist assholes he desperately needs to control a completely broken Republican Party. If you don't understand that 2018 was a referendum on his dumpster fire presidency and that 2020 will be more of the same, but with a way larger swath of angry voters, you should make up different cocktail parties to attend.

TM

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

If you want to win you had better.

Why? There is no peeling them off. I'm not talking about swing voters. I'm talking about Trump voters. The people who regret their vote do not fall into this category, their numbers are large, and they don't need convincing.

I understand the fear of another 4 years of Trump. I understand the stupidity of the average American voter. I understand all of the voter suppression and Republican cheating. And I am an inveterate pessimist. But Trump is going to get fucking crushed.

TM

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

Wait, were we at the same session? I had a guy from the audience wax poetic about the good ole days when he could fire a woman for getting pregnant.

That sounds like the same session. Eerily so.

The really frightening thing is hearing someone wax poetic about the days when no one cared if you were hitting on your secretary or pinching the receptionist's butt and then realizing they're my age.

Though another frightening this is signing on to this board and having someone who didn't hear this shit make some assumptions and instinctively defend the creeps.

[Did you just call me Coltrane?]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

Why? There is no peeling them off. I'm not talking about swing voters. I'm talking about Trump voters. The people who regret their vote do not fall into this category, their numbers are large, and they don't need convincing.

I understand the fear of another 4 years of Trump. I understand the stupidity of the average American voter. I understand all of the voter suppression and Republican cheating. And I am an inveterate pessimist. But Trump is going to get fucking crushed.

TM

I hope you're right. But I thought the same thing in 2016.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

The age thing means nothing this election.

I think it does in the primary, and my major impression of his "apology" video (in which he did not say "I'm sorry"), was that he looked awfully old and tired.

He's a part of the Obama team that people yearn for, but he's white, so he won't offend the kinda racist element he'll need.

Yes, his strongest selling point is proximity to Obama, but my read is that this is not a nostaglia moment, especially in the Democratic primary.

I'm not sure why you think he'll be a weak front runner since he's currently crushing Trump by 11 points.

I meant a weak front runner in the Democratic primary.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Adder

I think it does in the primary, and my major impression of his "apology" video (in which he did not say "I'm sorry"), was that he looked awfully old and tired.

Yes, his strongest selling point is proximity to Obama, but my read is that this is not a nostaglia moment, especially in the Democratic primary.

I meant a weak front runner in the Democratic primary.

Do not make the same mistake as all those Bernie psychos the last time around. The loudest group in the party is not necessarily the biggest. There is a lot of energy behind new progressives. But it's Biden's party if he wants it and he will win the nomination.

TM

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Did you just call me Coltrane?

I hope you're right. But I thought the same thing in 2016.

The confluence of events that permitted him to eke out a win by 70,000 votes spread over three states (each of which has been fucked hard by Trump over the last two years) will not exist.

TM

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

No one has benefited from his tax cut that either (i) isn't already voting for him or (ii) isn't completely insignificant, statistically speaking. He has fucked a large percentage of his base with his ridiculous tariffs and his promises to the coal industry have (obviously) proven to be complete bullshit, so even that small sliver of the population knows he's full of shit.

All this asshole has is the 35-40% of idiot/racist assholes he desperately needs to control a completely broken Republican Party. If you don't understand that 2018 was a referendum on his dumpster fire presidency and that 2020 will be more of the same, but with a way larger swath of angry voters, you should make up different cocktail parties to attend.

TM

Can you talk about this stuff without being whiny, pissy, and self-righteous? It's like talking to some overwrought cassandra after her fourth chardonnay. Even when I agree with you, you bitch. Get a fucking grip. It's just a Presidency. It'll end. I think in 2020.

But when someone says, "Hey, the Dems might fuck it up," they're not attacking you.

Getting into an analysis of why Trump voters last time around overlapped considerably with swing voters, and why a Presidential election is different from a mid-term seems to be what I ought to do here. But you're so fucking emotional on all this stuff.

I'm not getting into bona fides with someone who feels the need to ensure himself he's right with broadsides because he views even the suggestion Trump might somehow win as heresy.

I don't think Trump will win. But I also didn't think he'd win in 2016. I do think you need Xanax.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

Pick someone better. I'll wait.

Beto? Beta male would get stomped by Trump.

Pete Buttigieg. While I like him and would vote for him . . . puhleese. He wouldn't get a single vote south of the mason dixon line.

Any woman -- I tried that, I voted that, I contributed to that, so no.

Someone is going to be good at this, but I don't know who.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

Why? There is no peeling them off. I'm not talking about swing voters. I'm talking about Trump voters. The people who regret their vote do not fall into this category, their numbers are large, and they don't need convincing.

I understand the fear of another 4 years of Trump. I understand the stupidity of the average American voter. I understand all of the voter suppression and Republican cheating. And I am an inveterate pessimist. But Trump is going to get fucking crushed.

TM

I agree Trump will lose. But your analysis of Trump voter might be the most unlearned and made-up-in-your-own-head bullshit I've read. You know republicans and Trump voters about as much as you know what childbirth is like.

You idiot. I was taking you seriously, and you're fucking deluded.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Can you talk about this stuff without being whiny, pissy, and self-righteous? It's like talking to some overwrought cassandra after her fourth chardonnay.

That wasn't whiny or pissy. I can't help the self-righteous thing, but good god, neither can you.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Even when I agree with you, you bitch. Get a fucking grip.

You are mistaken. I wasn't bitching. I was making fun of your ridiculous tendency to quote someone at a cocktail party you made up whenever you think you need support for something you can't otherwise support. I find it infinitely amusing.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

It's just a Presidency. It'll end.

You are a true sage.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

But when someone says, "Hey, the Dems might fuck it up," they're not attacking you.

No shit.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Getting into an analysis of why Trump voters last time around overlapped considerably with swing voters, and why a Presidential election is different from a mid-term seems to be what I ought to do here. But you're so fucking emotional on all this stuff.

No, you're reading emotion into it. I despise the man, but I'm not emotional over your analysis.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I'm not getting into bona fides with someone who feels the need to ensure himself he's right with broadsides because he views even the suggestion Trump might somehow win as heresy.

And we get to the dumbest part of your post. You want to have a discussion about his chances, but if I express an opinion on those chances, you get butt-hurt. Whatever.

TM

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I agree Trump will lose. But your analysis of Trump voter might be the most unlearned and made-up-in-your-own-head bullshit I've read. You know republicans and Trump voters about as much as you know what childbirth is like.

You idiot. I was taking you seriously, and you're fucking deluded.

Dude, drop the tough-on-the-internet act. This shit is comically unconvincing.

TM

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Did you just call me Coltrane?

I hope you're right. But I thought the same thing in 2016.

There are a few big unknowns in the mix.

1. The number of new Trump voters. (Vote for him, but don;t care enough to vote in mid-terms.)
2. The number of 2016 Trump voters lost because his promises dod not pan out.

We don't know how a reconciliation of 1 and 2 nets.

3. How much the mid-terms were a referendum.
4. How much the mid-terms were the usual reflexive vote against the last election's winner mid-terms often are.

I don't think this can be netted. It's an eternal unknown.

5. Recession.

Get a solid one, and that's end of Trump. If we somehow don't get one, he has economy on which to run.

6. Florida ex-felon vote.
7. Florida efforts to suppress ex-felon vote (rollback legislation and ground efforts underway).

I think if all those new voters are allowed to vote, it nets against Trump and costs him the election.

I don't see how Trump wins the Blue Wall states again if Biden is in the race. But even if Biden is not in the race, and a progressive who'd lose to Trump in MI/WI/PA enters, Florida is still a very difficult win for Trump with all those new votes. (Trump's probably just silly enough to think he's got the Jewish vote, the Castro-haters, and some felons in the can as a result of his support for Israel, rollback of normalization of relations with Cuba, and justice reform support. He's wrong, and even if he were right, that's a rounding error in comparison to the ex-felon votes against him.)

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

Dude, drop the tough-on-the-internet act. This shit is comically unconvincing.

TM

Are you seriously saying that? That's your entire persona.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Are you seriously saying that? That's your entire persona.

Except I would say everything I've ever said to you here, to your face. You just type tough.

TM