Objectively intelligent.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Exactly. That's all I've been saying. We're doling out the drug. Let's keep doling it out an keep tabs on results.

It's possible you and I are talking past one another.

Adder, who can't think outside of his box to save his life, is suggesting we not use hydroxychloroquine until we have a study completed, which would be six months from now. And there are a lot of people just as fucking stupid as he is saying similar things. In which case there's a good chance Icky would have one friend less than he does.

No, I'm suggesting that idiots like you (and the commander in chief) need to be responsible adults and let the doctors and scientist figure it out instead of ignorantly thinking you know something you don't.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by icky thump

holy shit i am glad my friend listened to her doctors instead of people on the internet.

2

[LessinSF]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

This is not systemic. But it’s like melanoma. Catch it early, 95% cure rate. Let it get past 4 mm depth, 5 year survival goes to 25%.

Ty’s speaking bluntly, but this gets systemic fast. His point is important.

I’m not an economist, but I play one here, and I know loan workouts better than a lot, and this is classic story about bankruptcy. Everything’s slow slow slow and everything’s fine... and then suddenly it isn’t.

This bull market resurgence is a pile of shit even if we find a cure. It’s generated to let the big guys get out and leave the little shmucks holding the bag. I’d wait for this to crater back to 17k and then buy again. Fucking cannibals’ market.

I hope you are right for purely selfish reasons. And as for it being systemic, I may be wrong. I saw this on Reddit today, and he may be right:

Based on your state, your unemployment will be % of your wages. I get $1000 UC(unemplomeynt compensation) every 2 weeks after taxes. Which is about 50% of mine

These payments are good for 6 months. Until a pandemic comes crashing the fuck in. And then, if this is anything like 2008(hint: it's worse), they will extend these benefits for YEARS. In 2008 it was at least 2.5 years of extended unemployment benefits. I should know, I collected it all.

I fucking hate my job and my life. I would gladly sit at home for 40 hours a week making half my paycheck for free. And then donating tendies on top of that with all my free time. Now trumpdaddy is going to give me an extra $600 a week, for 4 months. And they want to push it to 6 months. Guess what, I'll now be making my full wages from home. Their is no fucken way I am going back to work with all these scuzzy ass people spreading corona everywhere.

...

tldr: you can collect 2.5 year of unemployment, with bonus 6 months of additional $600 in trumpbucks during that time. Me, and many people will be chosing free money over working.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by LessinSF

I hope you are right for purely selfish reasons. And as for it being systemic, I may be wrong. I saw this on Reddit today, and he may be right:

Most workers now have merely been furloughed. If you offer to bring them back, they can’t collect (unless they want to commit perjury on the weekly application).

The restaurant, park, concert venue sectors are long term unemployed. Most other workers will be compelled to return. Some scammers will argue they’re constructively terminated because they’re too afraid to return, but that’s a very small set of outliers.

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

2

Apropos of this whole discussion, this is a very good op-ed in the WaPo from this morning reminding providers to go back to evidence based medicine in the ICU setting. In this particular case, they're talking about the A2F Security Bundle, but the below quote applies across the board.

Covid-19 is "the story of dissemination of anecdotal medicine in a disease you don't know, and the walk away from evidence-based medicine," Christopher Thomas, a critical care physician at Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center in Baton Rouge, told us. "And it's driven by fear and anxiety."

My father is a critical care pulmonologist who would have been on the front lines of this thing had this happened ten years ago. He ran the ICUs in his hospital and has gotten more people off of vents than anyone in the Texas Medical Center. His 80 11/12th old lungs are's safely ensconced on a 500 acre ranch two miles from the closest house. I run shit by him about this bug and the treatment of it before going to anyone else, including the very smart* people who work for my employer. He thinks these guys are probably right on the proper way of managing patients, but on the broader scope, we definitely need to be looking at the basics and what we KNOW about medicine. Which is quite a lot.



*Sometimes too smart. Keeps for a very busy practice on my part.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

No, I'm suggesting that idiots like you (and the commander in chief) need to be responsible adults and let the doctors and scientist figure it out instead of ignorantly thinking you know something you don't.

That’s a counterproductive thought. The more possible cures are discussed, the more they attract r&d capital and cause physicians who may not have previously considered them to do so.

Recall, in most cases, these are ER docs making decisions on the fly, not infectious disease specialists (many of whom seem to be on tv). Trump may have accidentally educated the doc who saved Icky’s friend, or the doc or nurse in the grapevine who informed that doc of the drug’s potential effectiveness.

Again, the cost/benefit favors me at about 4X what it might favor your retort. You seem to be a critic in search of grounding. Logically, you’ve none — like Wiley Coyote realizing he’s in mid air. ...So eager to prove the Road Runner wrong. One can’t help but wonder why.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

2

Yes, and what did her doc rely upon? Anecdata.

Of course we should want the best data sets. No one disagrees. But while we’re building that, if all one has is anecdata, you make the best decision you can.

I don’t know what the aggressive desire to make the perfect the enemy of the best-info-we’ve-got is here. Particularly when the experimental use is creating the data set needed for more comprehensive study.

By the way, if I get it and have difficulty with breath, I’ll now know to go to ER ASAP, and if I’m found to have Covid, I’ll ask for the drugs. I won’t wait and later need a ventilator. And if I fall into the 2% of people who suffer cardiac issues, I’ll have been amazingly unlucky. If I recover by aid of the drug, I’ll have been saved by making a shrewd cost/benefit assessment. If it doesn’t help me, I was probably dead no matter what I did.

Think like a trader, not a lawyer. Works better in this sort of situation.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

By the way, if I get it and have difficulty with breath, I’ll now know to go to ER ASAP, and ask for the drugs. I won’t wait and later need a ventilator. And if I fall into the 2% of people who suffer cardiac issues, I’ll have been amazingly unlucky.

Or you could listen to your physician, who is hopefully informed by science and not you thinking you know things you do not.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Most workers now have merely been furloughed.

Why do you think that? We laid people off.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Or you could listen to your physician, who is hopefully informed by science and not you thinking you know things you do not.

I know my physician. He will give me the drug. As everyone in his hospital is doing where they deem it appropriate.

Don’t look down. Beep Beep!!!

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Yes, and what did her doc rely upon? Anecdata.

Of course we should want the best data sets. No one disagrees. But while we’re building that, if all one has is anecdata, you make the best decision you can.

I don’t know what the aggressive desire to make the perfect the enemy of the best-info-we’ve-got is here. Particularly when the experimental use is creating the data set needed for more comprehensive study.

By the way, if I get it and have difficulty with breath, I’ll now know to go to ER ASAP, and if I’m found to have Covid, I’ll ask for the drugs. I won’t wait and later need a ventilator. And if I fall into the 2% of people who suffer cardiac issues, I’ll have been amazingly unlucky. If I recover by aid of the drug, I’ll have been saved by making a shrewd cost/benefit assessment. If it doesn’t help me, I was probably dead no matter what I did.

Think like a trader, not a lawyer. Works better in this sort of situation.

The vast, vast majority of people that I have talked to in NY with the teltale symptoms get cold-like symptoms, lose their senses of smell and taste, then get better with nothing. Occasionally some people use OTC drugs, some don't. Only the one was hospitalized with bilateral pneumonia, and was in for a while. She couldn't complete a sentence on the phone with me without coughing.

Should they get tested? Probably but over the past two months no hospital would waste a test on cold symptoms. If you do plan to go to the ER and want to get tested, hype up the symptoms "I walked up the steps and collapsed" or "I got dizzy and passed out." Generic cold symptoms, they will likely say "Assume you have it, isolate for 14 days, call us if you can't breathe."

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Why do you think that? We laid people off.

Furloughed, laid off, what’s the difference if you intend to bring them back? Most firms I know used furloughed because it conveys that you intend to have them back ASAP.

We promised to do so and are still paying for health insurance. Most other small to midsize sized outfits I know are doing same. Maybe that’s a violation. Don’t care. Rules are immaterial now.

As an aside, I called the accountant last week regarding our personals. I was looking for some guidance on a deduction. He told me “Who the fuck knows if you’ll even be paying them this year?” That’s reassuring.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Yes, and what did her doc rely upon? Anecdata.

Of course we should want the best data sets. No one disagrees. But while we’re building that, if all one has is anecdata, you make the best decision you can.

I don’t know what the aggressive desire to make the perfect the enemy of the best-info-we’ve-got is here. Particularly when the experimental use is creating the data set needed for more comprehensive study.

By the way, if I get it and have difficulty with breath, I’ll now know to go to ER ASAP, and if I’m found to have Covid, I’ll ask for the drugs. I won’t wait and later need a ventilator. And if I fall into the 2% of people who suffer cardiac issues, I’ll have been amazingly unlucky. If I recover by aid of the drug, I’ll have been saved by making a shrewd cost/benefit assessment. If it doesn’t help me, I was probably dead no matter what I did.

Think like a trader, not a lawyer. Works better in this sort of situation.

I live with someone who works in an ICU caring for these patients. If you think that doctor saved that patient's life with malaria drugs because Donald Trump mentioned them on the TV, go write a Hallmark after school movie about it. There's a huge need for uplifting crap right now -- people will eat it up.

But your third to last sentence is dead wrong, and it's the same error that you keep making. If the drug doesn't help you, you'll probably survive, because most people who go into the hospital with Covid-19 survive.

Think like a nurse and trust the medical team taking care of you. It's not as much fun as pretending you are a trader and can call shots that might save you, but at some point you need to accept that there are things you can't control.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

The vast, vast majority of people that I have talked to in NY with the teltale symptoms get cold-like symptoms, lose their senses of smell and taste, then get better with nothing. Occasionally some people use OTC drugs, some don't. Only the one was hospitalized with bilateral pneumonia, and was in for a while. She couldn't complete a sentence on the phone with me without coughing.

Should they get tested? Probably but over the past two months no hospital would waste a test on cold symptoms. If you do plan to go to the ER and want to get tested, hype up the symptoms "I walked up the steps and collapsed" or "I got dizzy and passed out." Generic cold symptoms, they will likely say "Assume you have it, isolate for 14 days, call us if you can't breathe."

Good to know. Makes total sense. Squeaky wheel. Thanks.

(Don’t tell Adder. He thinks we shouldn’t exchange such information.)

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I live with someone who works in an ICU caring for these patients. If you think that doctor saved that patient's life with malaria drugs because Donald Trump mentioned them on the TV, go write a Hallmark after school movie about it. There's a huge need for uplifting crap right now -- people will eat it up.

But your third to last sentence is dead wrong, and it's the same error that you keep making. If the drug doesn't help you, you'll probably survive, because most people who go into the hospital with Covid-19 survive.

Think like a nurse and trust the medical team taking care of you. It's not as much fun as pretending you are a trader and can call shots that might save you, but at some point you need to accept that there are things you can't control.

Your last sentence is quite amusing. You and Adder are seeking maximum control. I’m saying I’ll take an educated guess if it’s all I’ve got. I’m quite aware I’ll have limited control, but what limited control I do have I will exercise with the best evidence I have at the time.

Added, OTOH, can go on a ventilator to avoid that 2% risk of cardiac arrest.