Keeping it civil instead of returning to our dark ways - Page 99

Not Me · 11-03-2004, 01:29 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Doesn't it stand to reason that most are Dems? I thought the Dems weren't challenging people.

I don't know where CNN got that number from. I just know that they reported it. Ask aV in the morning and I am sure he can tell you what the numbers are.

sgtclub · 11-03-2004, 01:29 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Skeks in the city
Ohio hasn't released an official tally of total number of provisional ballots, so you still can't predict OH

The Ohio SOS just said there was about 140K provisional ballots. That means that Kerry has to win 93%.

Tyrone Slothrop · 11-03-2004, 01:29 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
Provisional ballots are presumed ineligible, until proven otherwise.

Unless, that is, Atrios was wrong.

I don't think the burden of proof is the issue, in the end.

sgtclub · 11-03-2004, 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Say_hello_for_me
bad math. If they took 65%, the Rs would presumably get the other 35%, so the D's would then have another 70K to make up. Kerry would need, literally, 165K+ (not just 130K) of the 200K to make out.

eta: this works out to 82.5% of provisionals needed by Kerry

Math is hard

Tyrone Slothrop · 11-03-2004, 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
Assuming it is 200,000, Kerry has to win 65% to just tie.

If I understand what provisional ballots are, it would stand to reason that most would be Dems.

sgtclub · 11-03-2004, 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I don't think the burden of proof is the issue, in the end.

Mary Beth Cahill is saying that Kerry is not going to conceed until the provisionals are counted.

sgtclub · 11-03-2004, 01:32 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
If I understand what provisional ballots are, it would stand to reason that most would be Dems.

And still doesn't count the remaining counties (where Bush is projected to pad his lead) and absentees

sebastian_dangerfield · 11-03-2004, 01:32 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
But your taxes will remain lower, so it's a wash . . .

You know... I'd like to believe that.

Its kind of fitting that I just flipped the radio on downstairs and the first thing that came on was "Gimme Shelter".

Its real quiet right now upstairs. I'm sitting here alone thinking "well, at least my taxes won't bounce." But I'm also thinking "Fuck, I hope my wife and I don't have a daughter."

I don't know how to articulate concisely what the Country lost tonight. Its not really concrete. But we just knee-jerk grasped for certainty like little kids. A large swath of my country is clearly afraid and wants to wind the clock back to a time when life was simple. If only that were possible. I'd like to also believe that everything could be solved through simple faith and force. I'm sometimes pissed I have the grey matter I do. I'd really like to be able to be part of this new "certainty". Must be nice to really believe we can swing it back to a Norman Rockwell fantasy land...

Perhaps I should blame the left for pushing too hard. Who knows... Maybe it was Moore's fault.

This just doesn't feel right. But it never feels right when you take the cheap easy way out. We grabbed the security blanket of simple certainty like little children. I have to believe this was because Kerry was just that bad a candidate. I can't believe the Republic is that scared and simple of mind.

Tyrone Slothrop · 11-03-2004, 01:33 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
Mary Beth Cahill is saying that Kerry is not going to conceed until the provisionals are counted.

And she says there are 250,000 votes to count there. If those are absentee ballots, there's no way he can close the gap, but if those are provisional ballots, it could go the other way.

Not Me · 11-03-2004, 01:33 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
Mary Beth Cahill is saying that Kerry is not going to conceed until the provisionals are counted.

Is this a surprise to anyone? Kerry is an embarassment. He cares about nothing but himself.

Not Me · 11-03-2004, 01:34 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
And she says there are 250,000 votes to count there. If those are absentee ballots, there's no way he can close the gap, but if those are provisional ballots, it could go the other way.

He needs to get 150,000 of those to tie Bush.

sgtclub · 11-03-2004, 01:35 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
And she says there are 250,000 votes to count there. If those are absentee ballots, there's no way he can close the gap, but if those are provisional ballots, it could go the other way.

That is at odds with what the SOS is saying.

Tyrone Slothrop · 11-03-2004, 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
That is at odds with what the SOS is saying.

Why don't we transcribe CNN together?

SlaveNoMore · 11-03-2004, 01:36 AM

Quote:

Tyrone Slothrop
If I understand what provisional ballots are, it would stand to reason that most would be Dems.

There you go again

Provisional ballots are ballots filled out by those voters claiming the right to vote that are not - for whatever reason - not listed on the rolls.

Two thoughts:

1) This hurts both parties, whereas dirty tricks removed legit voters from the rolls, since the burden is now on the individual to show they are legit; and

2) Both parties have been claiming "voter rolls" problems.

I highly doubt the Dems get many votes from this.

Not Me · 11-03-2004, 01:37 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
You know... I'd like to believe that.

Its kind of fitting that I just flipped the radio on downstairs and the first thing that came on was "Gimme Shelter".

Its real quiet right now upstairs. I'm sitting here alone thinking "well, at least my taxes won't bounce." But I'm also thinking "Fuck, I hope my wife and I don't have a daughter."

I don't know how to articulate concisely what the Country lost tonight. Its not really concrete. But we just knee-jerk grasped for certainty like little kids. A large swath of my country is clearly afraid and wants to wind the clock back to a time when life was simple. If only that were possible. I'd like to also believe that everything could be solved through simple faith and force. I'm sometimes pissed I have the grey matter I do. I'd really like to be able to be part of this new "certainty". Must be nice to really believe we can swing it back to a Norman Rockwell fantasy land...

Perhaps I should blame the left for pushing too hard. Who knows... Maybe it was Moore's fault.

This just doesn't feel right. But it never feels right when you take the cheap easy way out. We grabbed the security blanket of simple certainty like little children. I have to believe this was because Kerry was just that bad a candidate. I can't believe the Republic is that scared and simple of mind.

It is this kind of moronic thinking that causes the Dems to lose elections. You just don't get it.